复杂决策环境下面向共识的群体评价模型与方法研究

项目名称： 复杂决策环境下面向共识的群体评价模型与方法研究

项目编号： No.71501080

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 董庆兴

作者单位： 华中师范大学

项目金额： 18.5万元

中文摘要： 在网络和大数据时代，由于复杂决策环境下的群体评价问题具有海量多源异构的个体偏好数据和关系数据、大规模异质群体和动态演化的评价过程等特征，因而如何提取出有效信息、分析群体偏好并取得群体共识意见是群体评价领域的一个重要的亟待解决的问题。本项目以复杂决策环境下的群体偏好为研究对象，拟采用复杂数据分析、观点动力学和群体评价理论与方法，着重研究个体偏好数据和关系数据的提取、挖掘和集成方法，建立群体偏好的动态演化和群体共识的预测、分析和控制模型，以及开发复杂决策环境下具有自适应、点对点交互和鲁棒计算等特征的快速群体共识达成方法，以提高解决复杂群体评价问题时的准确性和有效性。本研究以群体共识为主线，紧密结合群体评价问题的现实需求，构建复杂决策环境下面向共识的群体评价新方法，丰富现有的群体评价理论体系，为政府和企业部门提供更加科学和精确化的决策工具，具有重要的理论意义和现实应用价值。

中文关键词： 综合评价；群体评价；群体共识；复杂数据；观点动力学

英文摘要： In the era of internet and big data, since the group evaluation problems in the complex decision environment have the following complicated features such as high volume, multi-source and heterogeneous individuals’ preferences data and relation data, large scale heterogeneous group of individuals, and dynamic evolutionary evaluation process, an urgent need of group evaluation is to mine the useful information, analyze the group preference and capture the group consensus opinion. This project will focus on the group preferences in the complex decision environment. By using the complex data analysis methods, opinion dynamics model and group evaluation theory and methods, we attempt to study the following issues to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of dealing with the complex evaluation and decision problems, including the method of capturing, mining and synthesizing the individuals’ preferences data and relation data, the models of dynamic evolution mechanism of group preferences, the prediction, analysis and control model of group consensus, and the quick group consensus reaching methods with the features such as adaptiveness, peer-to-peer and robustness. Considering the demands of the solving methods for the real world group evaluation problems, we will concentrate on the group consensus to develop consensus-oriented complex group evaluation methods in the complex decision environment. This project, with both great theoretical and practical significance, will not only make an important contribution to the field of group evaluation, but also provide more scientific and precise decision aiding tools to the government and companies.

英文关键词： Comprehensive evaluation;Group evaluation;Group consensus;Complex data;Opinion dynamics