考虑痕迹不确定性的车人碰撞事故再现技术

项目名称： 考虑痕迹不确定性的车人碰撞事故再现技术

项目编号： No.51208065

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 建筑环境与结构工程学科

项目作者： 邹铁方

作者单位： 长沙理工大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 受过往车辆、行人及环境等因素影响，交通事故中的痕迹一般不能被准确测量，这严重影响事故再现结果的客观、可信性，致使痕迹不确定性问题极为严重。车人碰撞事故再现本身很复杂，再考虑此过程中痕迹的不确定性，就更具挑战性，不仅具有重要的理论和学术意义，而且具有重要的实用价值。本项目拟探讨从事故现场勘查到仿真再现全过程考虑痕迹不确定性的途径：首先研究行人抛距与车辆制动距离间关系，据此发现易被忽略痕迹、判断痕迹可信性、预估事故车辆车速及碰撞发生位置等，为之后仿真事故提供有价值的信息；然后用Pc-Crash软件仿真事故，使结果与事故现场几乎所有痕迹吻合；最后结合支持向量回归与区间优化方法，从不确定痕迹可能空间内获得仿真结果的取值区间。研究成果既可辅助事故现场勘查以从源头降低痕迹不确定性，又可充分利用现场痕迹再现事故，并将不能消除的痕迹不确定性反映到事故再现结果中，确保具体车人碰撞事故的再现结果客观而可信。

中文关键词： 事故再现；车人碰撞事故；痕迹；不确定性；仿真

英文摘要： Marks in a traffic accident can not be measured accurately because they are always influenced by environment, passing pedestrians, passing vehicles, and so on. These uncertain marks will influence the objectivity and creditability of accident reconstruction results, which makes uncertain marks to be a serious problem in accident reconstruction. To consider uncertain marks in a complex process of reconstructing a vehicle-pedestrian accident, which will be a challenge, is not only meaningful in theory and science, but also meaningful in practice. A way which can consider uncertain marks in accident scene survey and accident simulation is proposed. Firstly, the relationship between throw distance and braking distance will be studied, and then its application in finding ignored traces, judging reliability of traces, estimating the velocity of the vehicle and the impact position will be explored. Secondly, the accident will be simulated by Pc-Crash, which will make marks in simulation accord with those in truth. Finally, the response surface model will be obtained by support vector regression, and then the response surface model and interval optimization theory will be combined to calculate the range of the simulation results according to the domain of uncertain marks. Research results not only can be used to assist

英文关键词： Accident Reconstruction；Vehicle-Pedestrian Accident；Trace；Uncertainty；Simulation