相互关联研发网络上风险级联传播建模及控制方法研究

项目名称： 相互关联研发网络上风险级联传播建模及控制方法研究

项目编号： No.71501158

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 张延禄

作者单位： 西北工业大学

项目金额： 17.4万元

中文摘要： 本课题针对风险在不同关联研发网络之间具有级联传播这一现象，运用风险管理、复杂网络和相继故障理论来揭示相互关联研发网络上的风险级联传播规律，并对此提出相应的控制方法。课题借鉴复杂适应系统理论的思想，通过划分研发网络的宏观生成阶段和揭示研发企业的微观行为规则提出单个研发网络的生成模型，进而根据关联研发网络之间存在的关联关系类型，提出相互关联研发网络的生成模型。在识别研发网络主要潜在风险的基础上，借鉴相继故障理论的负荷——容量模型提出单一研发网络的风险传播模型，进而根据关联研发网络之间的风险触发机制建立相互关联研发网络上的风险级联传播模型，并运用数值仿真方法揭示不同参数取值下风险级联传播的规律及其对整个关联网络脆弱性的影响。从提高未失效企业的抗风险能力和修复已失效企业两方面提出针对风险级联传播的控制方法，并运用数值仿真方法验证控制方法在控制风险级联传播的有效性，从而为风险管理实践提供理论依据。

中文关键词： 相互关联研发网络；风险级联传播；风险控制；相继故障

英文摘要： Facing the phenomenon that risk can propagate among interdependent R&D networks, this project adopts risk management, complex network and cascading failures theories to explore the rules of risk cascading propagation among interdependent R&D networks, and then proposes the control method against risk cascading propagation. Firstly, this project introduces the complex adaptive system theory to propose the generation model of single R&D network by dividing different macro generation phases of R&D network and revealing the micro behavior rules of R&D enterprises. Then, this project proposes the generation model of interdependent R&D networks based on the identified interdependencies among interdependent R&D networks. Secondly, this project introduces the load-capacity model of cascading failures theory to propose the risk propagation model within single R&D network after identifying main potential risks of R&D network, and then proposes the risk cascading propagation model based on the established risk triggering mechanism among interdependent R&D networks. Thirdly, this project explores the rules of risk cascading propagation and their influences on the vulnerability of whole interdependent R&D networks under different values of parameters through numerical simulation. Finally, this project proposes the risk control method against risk cascading propagation by enhancing the anti-risk capabilities of certain normal enterprises and restoring certain failed enterprises, and then verifies the effectiveness of control method against risk cascading propagation. This project can provide an important theoretical basis for the practice of risk management.

英文关键词： interdependent R&D networks;risk cascading propagation;risk control;cascading failures