居民天然气阶梯定价政策设计及效果评价研究

项目名称： 居民天然气阶梯定价政策设计及效果评价研究

项目编号： No.71503065

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 李兰兰

作者单位： 合肥工业大学

项目金额： 19万元

中文摘要： 居民天然气价格改革涉及到千家万户，是价格改革的难点所在。根据国家发改委的相关要求，2015年底前所有已通气的城市均要建立起居民生活用气阶梯价格制度。在此背景下，本项目从系统的观点出发，以兼顾公平效率、减少交叉补贴、引导节约用气为目的，综合运用系统科学，资源经济理论、复杂系统建模方法与计算机仿真技术，研究受控于多种因素的、具有非线性复杂作用机理的天然气阶梯定价机制。主要内容包括：估算不同收入等级用户的天然气价格承受能力；分析居民天然气消费特征及影响因素，估计不同收入等级用户的需求价格弹性和收入弹性；建立包含政府规制者、燃气运营商和用户等的多主体博弈模型，制定合理的居民天然气阶梯定价结构，并通过分析用户的需求响应行为，评估阶梯气价的实施效果；结合案例研究，设计居民天然气阶梯定价政策及保障措施，为我国各地区制定、实施和完善阶梯定价政策提供决策依据。

中文关键词： 天然气；阶梯定价政策；需求价格弹性；多主体博弈模型；综合评价

英文摘要： Price reform of natural gas affects thousands of households, thus a crux of price reform. As required by National Development and Reform Council, a tiered pricing system of natural gas for living purpose must be established by the end of 2015 in all cities where natural gas has been supplied. In this context, this program starts with a systematic viewpoint and shares the purpose of justice and efficiency, minimal cross subsidy and saving in gas use. The research is based on a comprehensive overview of systems science，resource economic theory and conducted through modeling of a complex system and computer simulation technology. It tries to bring forth a tiered pricing system of natural gas which is controlled by multi factors and with a non-linear and complex functioning scheme. The major contents are: an estimation on price carrying capacity of natural gas for users at different income levels; an analysis of features and influencing factors of household gas usage, and estimation on the price elasticity of demand and income elasticity of gas users at different income levels; building a multi-agent gaming model involving government regulators, gas operators and gas users, forming a reasonable tiered pricing structure for household gas usage, and evaluating the effects of this pricing system in accordance with users’ responsive behaviors; design of a tiered pricing policy of natural gas and its facilitating measures based on case studies. The program intends to offer decision-making references for the building, implementing and perfecting of a tiered pricing system of natural gas.

英文关键词： natural gas;tiered pricing policy;price elasticity of demand;multi-agent game model;comprehensive evaluation