This study proposes Riesz representer estimation methods based on score matching. The Riesz representer is a key component in debiased machine learning for constructing $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and efficient estimators in causal inference and structural parameter estimation. To estimate the Riesz representer, direct approaches have garnered attention, such as Riesz regression and the covariate balancing propensity score. These approaches can also be interpreted as variants of direct density ratio estimation (DRE) in several applications such as average treatment effect estimation. In DRE, it is well known that flexible models can easily overfit the observed data due to the estimand and the form of the loss function. To address this issue, recent work has proposed modeling the density ratio as a product of multiple intermediate density ratios and estimating it using score-matching techniques, which are often used in the diffusion model literature. We extend score-matching-based DRE methods to Riesz representer estimation. Our proposed method not only mitigates overfitting but also provides insights for causal inference by bridging marginal effects and average policy effects through time score functions.
翻译:本研究提出了基于分数匹配的Riesz表示子估计方法。Riesz表示子是去偏机器学习中的关键组成部分,用于在因果推断和结构参数估计中构建$\sqrt{n}$-相合且高效的估计量。为估计Riesz表示子,直接估计方法(如Riesz回归和协变量平衡倾向得分)已受到关注。在平均处理效应估计等应用中,这些方法也可解释为直接密度比估计的变体。在密度比估计中,由于估计目标及损失函数形式的特点,灵活模型极易对观测数据产生过拟合。为解决该问题,近期研究提出将密度比建模为多个中间密度比的乘积,并采用扩散模型文献中常用的分数匹配技术进行估计。我们将基于分数匹配的密度比估计方法扩展至Riesz表示子估计。所提方法不仅能缓解过拟合问题,还通过时间分数函数连接边际效应与平均策略效应,为因果推断提供了新的理论视角。