Forecasting the formation and development of clouds is a central element of modern weather forecasting systems. Incorrect clouds forecasts can lead to major uncertainty in the overall accuracy of weather forecasts due to their intrinsic role in the Earth's climate system. Few studies have tackled this challenging problem from a machine learning point-of-view due to a shortage of high-resolution datasets with many historical observations globally. In this paper, we present a novel satellite-based dataset called ``CloudCast''. It consists of 70,080 images with 10 different cloud types for multiple layers of the atmosphere annotated on a pixel level. The spatial resolution of the dataset is 928 x 1530 pixels (3x3 km per pixel) with 15-min intervals between frames for the period 2017-01-01 to 2018-12-31. All frames are centered and projected over Europe. To supplement the dataset, we conduct an evaluation study with current state-of-the-art video prediction methods such as convolutional long short-term memory networks, generative adversarial networks, and optical flow-based extrapolation methods. As the evaluation of video prediction is difficult in practice, we aim for a thorough evaluation in the spatial and temporal domain. Our benchmark models show promising results but with ample room for improvement. This is the first publicly available global-scale dataset with high-resolution cloud types on a high temporal granularity to the authors' best knowledge.
翻译:云层的形成和发展是现代天气预报系统的核心要素。不正确的云层预测可能导致天气预报总体准确性的重大不确定性,因为天气预报在地球气候系统中具有内在作用。很少有研究从机器学习点解决了这一具有挑战性的问题,因为缺少高分辨率数据集,并有许多历史全球观测数据。在本文中,我们提出了一个名为“CloudCast'”的新颖的卫星数据集。它由70 080张图像和10种不同云型的多层大气图像组成,并在像素水平上附加说明。数据集的空间分辨率为928x1530像素(每像素3x3千米)。在2017-01至2018-12-31年期间的框架中间隔15分钟。所有框架都以欧洲为中心并预测。为了补充数据集,我们用当前最先进的视频视频预测方法,如长长的短期记忆网络、配对顶级对顶级对顶级的顶层网络和光学流外推算法。我们第一次对高空域模型所作的评估非常困难,因此,我们对高空域数据进行高水平的模型进行高水平评估。我们对高水平数据进行高分辨率评估。