W-MAE: Pre-trained weather model with masked autoencoder for multi-variable weather forecasting

Weather forecasting is a long-standing computational challenge with direct societal and economic impacts. This task involves a large amount of continuous data collection and exhibits rich spatiotemporal dependencies over long periods, making it highly suitable for deep learning models. In this paper, we apply pre-training techniques to weather forecasting and propose W-MAE, a Weather model with Masked AutoEncoder pre-training for multi-variable weather forecasting. W-MAE is pre-trained in a self-supervised manner to reconstruct spatial correlations within meteorological variables. On the temporal scale, we fine-tune the pre-trained W-MAE to predict the future states of meteorological variables, thereby modeling the temporal dependencies present in weather data. We pre-train W-MAE using the fifth-generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) data, with samples selected every six hours and using only two years of data. Under the same training data conditions, we compare W-MAE with FourCastNet, and W-MAE outperforms FourCastNet in precipitation forecasting. In the setting where the training data is far less than that of FourCastNet, our model still performs much better in precipitation prediction (0.80 vs. 0.98). Additionally, experiments show that our model has a stable and significant advantage in short-to-medium-range forecasting (i.e., forecasting time ranges from 6 hours to one week), and the longer the prediction time, the more evident the performance advantage of W-MAE, further proving its robustness.