Computing such correlation coefficient would be straightforward had we had available the rankings given by the prize committee to all scientists in the pool. In reality we only have citation rankings for all scientists. This means, however, that we have the ordinal rankings of the prize winners with regard to citation metrics. I use maximum likelihood method to infer the most probable correlation coefficient to produce the observed pattern of ordinal ranks of the prize winners. I get the correlation coefficients of 0.47 and 0.59 between the composite citation indicator and getting Abel Prize and Fields Medal, respectively. The correlation coefficient between getting a Nobel Prize and the Q-factor is 0.65. These coefficients are of the same magnitude as the correlation coefficient between Elo ratings of the chess players and their popularity measured as numbers of webpages mentioning the players.
翻译:如果有奖委员会给予池内所有科学家的排名,这种相关系数就直截了当了。事实上,我们只有所有科学家的引证排名。但这意味着我们在引证指标方面拥有获奖者的优先等级。我使用最有可能的方法推断最有可能的关联系数,以得出获奖者常规等级的观察模式。我得到综合引证指标与获得Abel奖和Fields奖牌之间的相关系数0.47和0.59。获得诺贝尔奖和Q-mactor之间的相关系数是0.65。这些系数与国际象棋选手的埃洛等级与以提及玩家的网页数量衡量的其受欢迎程度之间的相关系数相同。