We introduce DeepGLEAM, a hybrid model for COVID-19 forecasting. DeepGLEAM combines a mechanistic stochastic simulation model GLEAM with deep learning. It uses deep learning to learn the correction terms from GLEAM, which leads to improved performance. We further integrate various uncertainty quantification methods to generate confidence intervals. We demonstrate DeepGLEAM on real-world COVID-19 mortality forecasting tasks.
翻译:我们引入了DeepGLEAM, 这是一种COVID-19预测的混合模型。 DeepGLEAM将机械学模拟模型GLEAM与深层学习结合起来。它利用深层学习从GLEAM学习纠正术语,从而改进了绩效。我们进一步整合了各种不确定性量化方法,以产生信任间隔。我们在现实世界COVID-19死亡率预测任务中展示了DeepGLEAM。