Towards Better Long-range Time Series Forecasting using Generative Adversarial Networks

Accurate long-range forecasting of time series data is an important problem in many sectors, such as energy, healthcare, and finance. In recent years, Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have provided a revolutionary approach to many problems. However, the use of GAN to improve long-range time series forecasting remains relatively unexplored. In this paper, we utilize a Conditional Wasserstein GAN (CWGAN) and augment it with an error penalty term, leading to a new generative model which aims to generate high-quality synthetic time series data, called CWGAN-TS. By using such synthetic data, we develop a long-range forecasting approach, called Generative Forecasting (GenF), consisting of three components: (i) CWGAN-TS to generate synthetic data for the next few time steps. (ii) a predictor which makes long-range predictions based on generated and observed data. (iii) an information theoretic clustering (ITC) algorithm to better train the CWGAN-TS and the predictor. Our experimental results on three public datasets demonstrate that GenF significantly outperforms a diverse range of state-of-the-art benchmarks and classical approaches. In most cases, we find a 6% - 12% improvement in predictive performance (mean absolute error) and a 37% reduction in parameters compared to the best performing benchmark. Lastly, we conduct an ablation study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the CWGAN-TS and the ITC algorithm.