Cross-domain time series forecasting is a valuable task in various web applications. Despite its rapid advancement, achieving effective generalization across heterogeneous time series data remains a significant challenge. Existing methods have made progress by extending single-domain models, yet often fall short when facing domain-specific trend shifts and inconsistent periodic patterns. We argue that a key limitation lies in treating temporal series as undifferentiated sequence, without explicitly decoupling their inherent structural components. To address this, we propose OneCast, a structured and modular forecasting framework that decomposes time series into seasonal and trend components, each modeled through tailored generative pathways. Specifically, the seasonal component is captured by a lightweight projection module that reconstructs periodic patterns via interpretable basis functions. In parallel, the trend component is encoded into discrete tokens at segment level via a semantic-aware tokenizer, and subsequently inferred through a masked discrete diffusion mechanism. The outputs from both branches are combined to produce a final forecast that captures seasonal patterns while tracking domain-specific trends. Extensive experiments across eight domains demonstrate that OneCast mostly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.
翻译:跨领域时间序列预测在各类网络应用中具有重要价值。尽管该领域发展迅速,但在异构时间序列数据上实现有效泛化仍面临显著挑战。现有方法通过扩展单领域模型取得了一定进展,但在应对领域特定的趋势漂移与不一致周期模式时往往表现不足。我们认为,现有方法的关键局限在于将时序数据视为无差别的序列,未能显式解耦其内在的结构化成分。为此,我们提出OneCast——一种结构化、模块化的预测框架,通过将时间序列分解为季节性与趋势性成分,并分别采用定制化的生成路径进行建模。具体而言,季节性成分通过轻量级投影模块捕获,该模块借助可解释的基函数重构周期模式;与此同时,趋势性成分通过语义感知的分词器在片段层级编码为离散令牌,并经由掩码离散扩散机制进行推断。两个分支的输出最终融合生成既能捕捉周期性模式、又能追踪领域特定趋势的预测结果。在八个领域数据集上的大量实验表明,OneCast在多数情况下优于当前最先进的基线方法。