The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model indicates that overall sea ice coverage is declining at an increasing rate. By contrast, average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high carbon emissions. Our long-range statistical projections also deliver probability assessments of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. These results indicate almost a 60 percent chance of an effectively ice-free Arctic Ocean sometime during the 2030s -- much earlier than the average projection from the global climate models.
翻译:北极海冰数量的下降趋势具有广泛的环境和经济后果,包括对全球气候变化的速度和强度的重大影响。根据数十年的卫星数据,我们提供了本世纪余下时间北极海冰范围的统计预测。最合适的统计模型表明,总体海冰覆盖率正在以不断上升的速度下降。相比之下,CMIP5全球气候模型的平均预测预测预测,即使在碳排放量高的情况下,北极海冰损失也会逐渐减缓。我们的远程统计预测也提供了无冰北极时间的概率评估。这些结果显示,2030年代某个时候有效无冰北极海洋的概率几乎达到60%,远远低于全球气候模型的平均预测。