We focus on the modeling and simulation of an infectious disease spreading in a medium size population occupying a confined environment, such as an airport terminal, for short periods of time. Because of the size of the crowd and venue, we opt for a kinetic type model. The paper is divided into two parts. In the first part, we adopt the simplifying assumption that people's walking speed and direction are given. The resulting kinetic model features a variable that denotes the level of exposure to people spreading the disease, a parameter describing the contagion interaction strength, and a kernel function that is a decreasing function of the distance between a person and a spreading individual. Such model is tested on problems involving a small crowd in a square walkable domain. In the second part, ideas from the simplified model are used to incorporate disease spreading in a kinetic theory approach for crowd dynamics, i.e. the walking speed and direction result from interaction with other people and the venue.
翻译:我们注重在短时期内对占据封闭环境(如机场终点站)的中小人群中传播传染病的模型和模拟。由于人群和地点的大小,我们选择了动能型模型。纸张分为两部分。在第一部分,我们采用简化的假设,即人们的行走速度和方向是给定的。由此产生的动能模型有一个变量,它表示人们接触传播疾病的程度,一个描述传染相互作用强度的参数,一个内核功能,是个人与扩散个人距离的日益缩小的功能。这种模型在涉及小人群的平方形地区问题上进行测试。在第二部分,简化模型的想法被用来将疾病传播纳入人群动态动态的动能理论方法,即与其他人和地点的互动所产生的行走速度和方向。