This work contributes to the discussion on how innovative data can support a fast crisis response. We use operational data from Facebook to gain useful insights on where people fleeing Ukraine following the Russian invasion are likely to be displaced, focusing on the \acl{EU}. In this context, it is extremely important to anticipate where these people are moving so that local and national authorities can better manage challenges related to their reception and integration. By means of the Ukrainian-speaking Monthly Active Users estimates provided by Facebook advertising platform, we analyse the flows of people fleeing the country towards the European Union. At the fifth week since the beginning of the war, our results indicate an increase in the number of Ukrainian-speaking Facebook users in all the EU countries, with Poland registering the highest percentage share ($33\%$) of the overall increase, followed by Germany ($17\%$), and Czechia ($15\%$). We assess the reliability of prewar Facebook estimates by comparison with official statistics on the Ukrainian diaspora, finding a strong correlation between the two data sources (Pearson's $r=0.93$, $p<0.0001$). We then compare our results with data on arrivals in Poland and Hungary reported by the \acs{UNHCR}, and we observe a similarity in their trend. In conclusion, we show how Facebook advertising data could offer timely insights on international mobility during crisis, supporting initiatives aimed at providing humanitarian assistance to the displaced people, as well as local and national authorities to better manage their reception and integration.
翻译:这项工作有助于讨论创新数据如何支持快速应对危机。我们使用Facebook的业务数据,以了解俄罗斯入侵后逃离乌克兰的人在哪些地方可能流离失所,重点是 kcl{EU}。在这方面,极为重要的是预测这些人的移动地点,以便地方和国家当局能够更好地管理与他们的接待和融合有关的挑战。通过Facebook广告平台提供的乌克兰语每月活跃用户估计数,我们分析了逃离乌克兰的人流向欧洲联盟的流量。在战争开始以来的第五个星期,我们的结果显示,所有欧盟国家乌克兰语的Facebook用户在总体上增加的比例中都有所增加,波兰在增加的比例中所占的百分比最高(33美元),其次是德国(17美元)和捷克(15美元)。我们通过比较乌克兰侨民的官方统计数据,评估了战前Facebook估计数的可靠性,发现两个数据来源(Pearson$=0.93美元,美元<0.0001美元)之间有着密切的关联。在战争开始以来的第五个星期,我们的结果表明,在欧盟各国,讲乌克兰语的Facebook用户在总体增长中所占的份额最高(33美元),其次是德国(17美元),捷克(15美元)和捷克(15美元)。 我们评估了与乌克兰语),根据难民署的数据显示,在危机期间提供了更准确的融入。