In this paper we review the academic transportation literature published between 2014 and 2018 to evaluate where the field stands regarding the use and misuse of statistical significance in empirical analysis, with a focus on discrete choice models. Our results show that 39% of studies explained model results exclusively based on the sign of the coefficient, 67% of studies did not distinguish statistical significance from economic, policy or scientific significance in their conclusions, and none of the reviewed studies considered the statistical power of the tests. Based on these results we put forth a set of recommendations aimed at shifting the focus away from statistical significance towards proper and comprehensive assessment of effect magnitudes and other policy relevant quantities.
翻译:在本文件中,我们审查了2014年至2018年出版的学术运输文献,以评价实地在经验分析中使用和滥用统计意义方面的情况,重点是独立选择模式。我们的结果显示,39%的研究只根据系数符号解释了模型结果,67%的研究没有在结论中将统计意义与经济、政策或科学意义区分开来,经审查的研究没有考虑测试的统计力量。根据这些结果,我们提出了一套建议,旨在将重点从统计意义转向适当和全面评估效应规模和其他相关政策数量。