The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has led to the deepest global health and economic crisis of the current century. This dramatic situation has forced the public health authorities and pharmaceutical companies to develop anti-COVID-19 vaccines in record time. Currently, almost 80% of the population are vaccinated with the required number of doses in Spain. Thus, in this paper, COVID-19 incidence and lethality rates are analyzed through a segmented spatio-temporal regression model that allows studying if there is an association between a certain vaccination level and a change (in mean) in either the incidence or the lethality rates. Spatial dependency is included by considering the Besag-York-Molli\'e model, whereas natural cubic splines are used for capturing the temporal structure of the data. Lagged effects between the exposure and the outcome are also taken into account. The results suggest that COVID-19 vaccination has not allowed yet (as of September 2021) to observe a consistent reduction in incidence levels at a regional scale in Spain. In contrast, the lethality rates have displayed a declining tendency which has associated with vaccination levels above 50%.
翻译:严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 严重急性急性呼吸道综合症冠状腺病毒2 (SARS-COV-2) 导致2019年冠状病毒疾病(COVID-19),导致本世纪全球健康和经济危机最深,这一戏剧性情况迫使公共卫生当局和制药公司在创纪录的时间内开发反COVID-19疫苗,目前西班牙几乎80%的人口接种了所需剂量的疫苗,因此,在本文件中,对COVID-19的发病率和致死率的分析是通过一个片段的时空回归模型进行的,该模型允许研究在一定的接种水平与发病率或致死率的变化(平均值)之间是否有关联,从而研究在目前这个世纪中出现最深的全球性健康和经济危机,这种严重的情况迫使公共卫生当局和制药公司在创纪录的时间内研制了抗COVID-19疫苗疫苗疫苗,而使用天然树脂样条则用于获取数据的时间结构,同时还考虑到接触和结果之间的缓慢影响。结果表明,COVID-19的接种率(截至2021年9月)尚未允许在西班牙观察到发病率持续下降的发病率水平上,其区域水平与50的接种率呈下降趋势。