Background: Recently, a high number of daily positive COVID-19 cases have been reported in regions with relatively high vaccination rates; hence, booster vaccination has become necessary. In addition, infections caused by the different variants and correlated factors have not been discussed in depth. With large variabilities and different co-factors, it is difficult to use conventional mathematical models to forecast the incidence of COVID-19. Methods: Machine learning based on long short-term memory was applied to forecasting the time series of new daily positive cases (DPC), serious cases, hospitalized cases, and deaths. Data acquired from regions with high rates of vaccination, such as Israel, were blended with the current data of other regions in Japan to factor in the potential effects of vaccination. The protection provided by symptomatic infection was also considered in terms of the population effectiveness of vaccination as well as the waning protection and ratio and infectivity of viral variants. To represent changes in public behavior, public mobility and interactions through social media were also included in the analysis. Findings: Comparing the observed and estimated new DPC in Tel Aviv, Israel, the parameters characterizing vaccination effectiveness and the waning protection from infection were well estimated; the vaccination effectiveness of the second dose after 5 months and the third dose after two weeks from infection by the delta variant were 0.24 and 0.95, respectively. Using the extracted parameters regarding vaccination effectiveness, new cases in three prefectures of Japan were replicated.
翻译:方法:基于长期短期记忆的机械学习用于预测每日新阳性病例(DPC)、严重病例、住院病例和死亡的时间序列;从诸如以色列等高接种率地区获得的数据与日本其他地区目前数据相结合,没有深入讨论不同变异和相关因素造成的感染因素,也没有深入讨论不同变异和共同因素造成的感染情况;由于存在很大的差异和不同的共同因素,很难使用常规数学模型来预测COVID-19的发病率;方法:根据长期短期记忆进行的机械学习用于预测每日新阳性病例(DPC)、严重病例、住院病例和死亡的时间序列;从以色列等高接种率地区获得的数据与日本其他地区目前的数据相结合,以考虑到接种疫苗的潜在影响;从疫苗接种人口效力以及病毒变异性、保护和比率下降以及病毒变异性等角度考虑症状感染提供的保护;分析还包括了公共行为的变化、公众流动和通过社会媒体的互动;调查结果:在特拉维夫、以色列等地区观察到和估计的新流行率新高的地区获得的数据与目前日本其他地区的数据混杂在一起,将疫苗接种效力的参数与接种效果的参数混为一考虑;在接种疫苗前三个星期后,在接种疫苗后估计了接种率和接种疫苗量为0.205;在接种率下,在日本接种率下进行了两次。