低碳环境下考虑多重不确定性的负荷裕度分析理论与方法研究

项目名称： 低碳环境下考虑多重不确定性的负荷裕度分析理论与方法研究

项目编号： No.51277015

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 电工技术

项目作者： 马瑞

作者单位： 长沙理工大学

项目金额： 76万元

中文摘要： 大力发展风电、插入式电动汽车和积极推进节能减排的低碳电力是应对能源和环境危机的必然选择。在低碳环境多重不确定注入下，电力系统供需实时平衡中负荷裕度确定、多目标协调及风险识别等面临挑战。本项目借助数据挖掘和可信性理论，建立风电出力、负荷水平及增长方向的随机模糊变量序列化模型；基于随机模糊模拟、动态连续潮流和最优潮流，提出多重不确定注入系统电压崩溃临界点求取模型和算法；考虑双馈异步风力发电机控制方式和负荷静态电压特性，推导静态电压稳定安全域边界切平面解析式，获取正常和故障后的静态电压稳定域边界描述；基于随机模糊机会约束规划、多目标动态最优潮流，提出多重不确定注入下多目标协调及风险识别新思路和新方法；最后采用IEEE算例和实际电网数据验证模型与算法的有效性。通过对电源和负荷多重不确定特征提取和建模、最大负荷裕度求取、多目标协调和风险识别的研究，构建低碳环境多重不确定注入下负荷裕度分析理论和方法。

中文关键词： 低碳电力；多重不确定性；负荷裕度；多目标优化；风险识别

英文摘要： By challenges of energy shortage and environmental restrictions, the power industry is witnessing an increasing trend of low carbon-emission developments, such as wind power generation and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV). However, these kinds of low carbon-emission electric power are totally different from traditional ones due to their stochastic, intermittent, and fuzzy natures. Thus it is difficult for traditional analysis methods to determine the load margin of a power system requiring real-time power balance. In addition, it also becomes hard to achieve effective multi-objective coordination among the load margin, pool purchase cost, and emission of carbon dioxide, etc. This research aims at developing methodologies for load margin analysis and multi-objective coordination theory. We are going to develop new models of power injections including multi-uncertainty generation and load, new approaches to obtain the maximal load margin, and new methods for multi-objective coordination and risk identification. Firstly, we will set up a daily sequence model describing the stochastic and fuzzy variables of the injection power for both the wind generation and the load. This model can be achieved based on forecasting techniques and the credibility theory. Secondly, we will develop an approach to find the voltag

英文关键词： low-carbon electricity；multiple uncertainty；load margin；multi-objective optimization；risk identification