降雨控制型泥石流临界雨量预报模型研究

项目名称： 降雨控制型泥石流临界雨量预报模型研究

项目编号： No.41202244

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 庄建琦

作者单位： 长安大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 降雨激发的泥石流占泥石流暴发总量的约90%，降雨是泥石流形成最重要的因子,降雨控制型泥石流的临界雨量预报模型的建立对泥石流的精确预报和减灾非常重要。本项目以我国降雨控制型泥石流典型区域（蒋家沟流域和西汉水流域的关西村-清水沟）为研究区，利用大量的野外观测、数值模拟、室内大型物理模拟试验和室外原型试验等方法,重点研究降雨特征对泥石流形成的影响，量化不同降雨因子对泥石流形成的贡献，提出激发降雨控制型泥石流形成的关键降雨因子，基于不同方法建立研究区降雨控制型泥石流形成临界雨量预模型，回答诱发降雨控制型泥石流形成的降雨因子权重不清、选择不准和预报精度不高等问题，实现研究区域泥石流的精确预报目标。项目的研究方法和研究结果，对于其他泥石流多发区域临界雨量预报模型的建立和实现泥石流发生的精确预报具有一定的科学借鉴意义。

中文关键词： 泥石流；预报模型；降雨指标；预测预报；

英文摘要： The precipitation is the most important factors of debris flow initiation due to ninety percent of debris flow in triggered by rainfall. The precise critical rainfall triggered the rainfall-limited debris flow is very important for accurate prediction and mitigation of debris flow. This program takes the typical regions of rainfall-limited debris flow in china as study area, focusing on the relationship between debris flow occurrence and rainfall characters, quantizing the contribution degree of different rainfall factors on the debris flow occurrence, proposing the key rainfall factors that triggering the debris flow occurrence, establishing the critical rainfall forecast model of the rainfall-limited debris flow in the study areas based on varies methods by means of field observations, simulations, indoor large-scale experiments and prototype testing. The results could answer the problem of the rainfall factors contribution weight to debris flow occurrence unclear, the rainfall factors selected to forecast not allowed and forecast is inaccuracy in the debris flow forecast, and so make the forecast debris flow more accurate. The research methods and results of the project is a good scientific reference for the other debris flow effected-areas to establish the critical rainfall forecast model and achieve accurat

英文关键词： debris flow；forecast model；precipitation factors；forecast；