不确定环境下产品配置与供应商选择集成优化方法

项目名称： 不确定环境下产品配置与供应商选择集成优化方法

项目编号： No.51505488

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 机械、仪表工业

项目作者： 张萌

作者单位： 中国人民解放军国防科技大学

项目金额： 15万元

中文摘要： 产品配置结构及其供应商组合的并行优化有助于保证新产品质量、降低开发成本和缩短交货期；复杂市场环境中广泛存在的多重不确定性对新产品开发的影响不可忽视。在此背景下，项目针对产品开发的实际过程，将产品配置与供应商选择结合起来，充分考虑多重不确定性因素，深入地研究基于不确定性的产品配置与供应商选择集成优化决策理论与方法，并以典型产品为例进行实证研究。包括：揭示不确定性的存在模式与表现形式及其对产品配置与供应商选择集成优化的影响机制，构建基于不确定性的产品配置与供应商选择多目标集成优化模型，设计能够有效求解不确定多目标优化问题的智能算法，建立小样本条件下配置产品性能预测模型与方法，研究基于随机模拟的产品总成本与交货期统计特性分析方法等。通过项目的实施能够实现不确定环境下产品配置结构及其供应商组合的全局并行优化，从而形成一套能解决实际产品开发的优化决策理论与技术体系，具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。

中文关键词： 产品配置；供应商选择；不确定性；并行优化；性能预测

英文摘要： The concurrent optimization of product configuration and its supplier combination administers to maintaining quality, reducing cost and shortening lead time. Uncertainty, existing in the complicated market environment, plays an important role during the new product development process. To deal with these problems, this project tries to integrate the product configuration and its supplier selection, and to fully take the consideration with multiple uncertain factors. Integrative optimization methodology for product configuration and supplier selection considering information uncertainties is deeply and systematically studied. Some typical product is taken as illustration for validating the effectiveness and efficiency of this proposed method. The uncertain factors that affect the actual configuration are analyzed, their modes and expressions are present, moreover, their influencing mechanism to integrative optimization of product configuration and supplier selection is revealed. A multiobjective integrated optimization model of product configuration and supplier selection is established while a hybrid algorithm to solve this model is put forward by improving the typical intelligent algorithms. In addition, the approach to configuration performance prediction under the small sample condition is proposed by using soft computing technology instead of experimental methods. Statistical analysis for product cost and lead time are shown using random simulation. This research has important theoretical and practical value, which is able to realize global optimization of product configuration and its supplier combination in the circumstance of multiple kinds of uncertainties. Furthermore, it’s helpful to build a methodology in optimizing decision-making for practical complex product development.

英文关键词： product configuration;supplier selection;uncertainty;parallel optimization;performance prediction