互联网舆情演化中群体行为协同演进模型研究

项目名称： 互联网舆情演化中群体行为协同演进模型研究

项目编号： No.71271120

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 朱恒民

作者单位： 南京邮电大学

项目金额： 52万元

中文摘要： 互联网舆情演化是广大网民群体行为交互作用的结果，演化过程交织着舆情话题传播和网民对舆情的意见演进行为，且两者相互作用，表现出更为激进的动力学特征。为了刻画出舆情演化中群体行为间的协同作用关系，在综合考虑网民个体和媒体对行为影响特性的基础上，研究舆情演化中群体行为的协同演进模型，包括：基于免疫退化策略的话题传播行为子模型、基于动态网络的意见演进行为子模型，以及话题传播和意见演进行为的协同演进机制；基于此分析协同环境下话题传播和意见演进行为的动力学特性，以及两者的相互作用原理；最后，基于群体行为动力学仿真分析的结论，结合实验仿真，研究政府对舆情演化中非理性群体行为的引导和控制策略。其意义在于，舆情演化中群体行为协同演进模型突破了目前工作只是单独针对话题传播或者意见演进行为进行研究的思路和框架，更为科学地刻画出网民心理和行为演进过程，对于提高政府对互联网舆情的预警和及时处理能力具有重要意义。

中文关键词： 互联网舆情演化；话题传播；意见演进；协同演进；复杂网络

英文摘要： The evolution of internet public opinion is the result of interactive behavior of the broad group of net citizens, the process of which interweaves topic spreading and the evolution of net citizens' views on the public opinion, and both are interaction, which shows the more radical characteristics of dynamics.In order to describe the synergistic relationship between these two collective behaviors, the co-evolution model of collective behaviors in the evolution of the internet public opinion is proposed which includes the topic propagation sub-model based on the immune degradation strategy, the opinion evolution sub-model based on the dynamic networks as well as the co-evolution mechanism of both. The model considers the influence of both the net individuals and media on the behavior. Based on this model, the dynamic characteristics of the topic spreading and the opinion evolution behavior under the collaborative environment, and the principle of the interaction between the two are analyzed. At last, based on the above conclusion and combined the experiment simulation, the guidance and control strategy of irrationally collective behavior of the government is studied. The significance of research is that the co-evolution model of collective behavior breaks through the ideas and framework of the present work which

英文关键词： Evolution of Internet Public Opinion；Topic Spreading；Opinion Evolution；Co-evolution；Complex Network