民航飞机可靠性评估、监测与风险管理研究

项目名称： 民航飞机可靠性评估、监测与风险管理研究

项目编号： No.60879001

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2009

项目学科： 武器工业

项目作者： 王华伟

作者单位： 南京航空航天大学

项目金额： 15万元

中文摘要： 本项目从影响民航飞机运行可靠性的两个重要因素-维修差错和维修决策为契入点，提出可靠性评估、监测与风险管理方法。运用人因工程理论，构建了航空维修差错评估体系，建立了基于高斯贝叶斯网络的航空维修差错风险管理模型；提出了分析航空维修差错对飞机可靠性影响的方法；研究成果解决了基于维修差错的民机运行可靠性管理定量化问题。结合民机运行过程中具有信息来源的广泛性、状态的可监测性、故障的贫发性等特点，按照信息融合-模型集成的研究思路，采用贝叶斯线性模型融合了状态监测信息，建立了基于Gamma过程的民机随机可靠性退化监测模型；通过竞争失效机理集成了退化失效可靠性监测模型和突发失效可靠性评估模型；提出了基于隐马尔可夫模型和贝叶斯方法的风险维修决策方法；该系列研究成果可以实现在线民机可靠性监测与评估，优化维修决策和降低维修成本，实现民航飞机可靠性与经济性的协同优化。本项目实现了全面、准确监测与评估民机可靠性，可以有效解决当前民机可靠性管理中的核心和关键问题。依托本项目的研究，以民航飞机的重要子系统-民航发动机为对象，开发了民航发动机性能可靠性监测与系统可靠性评估软件系统，进一步推动了本项目的工程化应用。

中文关键词： 可靠性评估；维修差错；风险管理；维修决策；状态监测

英文摘要： The reliability evaluation, monitoring and risk management methods is proposed from maintenance decision and maintenance error, which are the key factors effecting aircraft operation reliability. In the project, the maintenance error evaluation system is built by human factor engineering. Risk model based on Gaussian Bayesian Networks is proposed to manage maintenance error. The method is proposed to analyze the maintenance error effect on reliability. The aircraft reliability quantification management based on maintenance error is realized by the above research result. Considering the aircraft characteristics of much monitoring information and little failure information, information fusion and model integration is proposed to evaluate and monitor aircraft reliability. Bayeisan linear model is applied to fuse monitoring information and aircraft reliability evaluation model based on Gamma random process is built to describe performance degradation. The degradation model and sudden failure model is integrated by competing risk mechanism to describe online aircraft reliability evaluation and monitoring. The risk maintenance decision method based on hidden Markov model and Bayes method is proposed to optimize aircraft maintenance cost and control aircraft operation risk. The key problem of aircraft reliability management is solved by above a series of models and methods. The approach has been demonstrated effectiveness on aircraft engine, which is one of the most subsystem of aircraft. The reliability monitoring and system reliability evaluation system for aircraft engine has been developed to promote engineering application.

英文关键词： relibility evaluation;maintenance error;risk management;maintenance decision;condition monitoring