战略环境评价（SEA）中碳排放核算的理论框架与技术方法体系- - 以城市尺度国民经济与社会发展规划SEA为例

项目名称： 战略环境评价（SEA）中碳排放核算的理论框架与技术方法体系- - 以城市尺度国民经济与社会发展规划SEA为例

项目编号： No.41271509

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 马蔚纯

作者单位： 复旦大学

项目金额： 75万元

中文摘要： 在战略环境评价（SEA）中纳入气候变化因素已成为SEA研究和实践中的重要趋势，而碳排放核算是目前SEA中考虑气候变化因素最重要和可行的形式。本项目将研究SEA碳排放核算的目标、原则、规划实施对碳排放的影响机制等问题，初步建立SEA碳排放核算的理论框架。在此基础上，以城市尺度国民经济和社会发展规划为例，建立包括基础数据库、基于系统动力学的城市碳排放/吸收仿真模型和评价指标体系在内的碳排放核算与评价技术方法体系，开发相应的计算机集成信息支持系统。并以上海市国民经济和社会发展规划为例，开展实例研究，从社会、经济、产业、能源、交通等方面，提出上海中长期低碳化发展的对策、措施和途径。

中文关键词： 国民经济与社会发展规划；碳排放；系统动力学；指标体系；上海

英文摘要： Incorporating climate change considerations in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has been an important trend in the SEA research field and implementation. And carbon emission accounting is the most important and feasible approach for SEA to incorporate climate change considerations. This project will study the objects, principles, the influence mechanisms of carbon emission due to the implementations of plans and etc., and build the theoretical framework of carbon emission accounting in SEA. Based on the research work above, taking the city-level National Economic and Social Development Plan (NESDP) as an example, This project will construct the technical method system of carbon emission accounting and evaluation for SEA. This system will be composed of the basic database, city-level carbon emission/absorption simulation model based on system dynamics and indicator system for evaluation. A computer-based integrated information support system will also be developed based on above technical methods. Taking Shanghai NESDP as an example, a case study will be done, and from different aspects such as society, economy, industry, energy ,traffic and etc.,the strategic measures and approaches will also be proposed for low carbon development of Shanghai in mid and long term.

英文关键词： The National Economic and Social Development Plan；Carbon Emission；System Dynamics；Indicator System；Shanghai City