内外双重驱动因素影响下鄱阳湖流域径流变异定量归因分析

项目名称： 内外双重驱动因素影响下鄱阳湖流域径流变异定量归因分析

项目编号： No.51509141

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 郭家力

作者单位： 三峡大学

项目金额： 21万元

中文摘要： 近年来鄱阳湖区频繁出现的极端事件，特别是2003年以来鄱阳湖连续出现枯水，严重影响到鄱阳湖区的供水安全、经济安全和生态安全，引起了国内外科学界和社会舆论的广泛关注。本研究采用实地考察、统计分析、理论研究、模型构建、对比验证等多种研究手段，定量表征长江-鄱阳湖水量交换关系及其对三峡工程响应、研究鄱阳湖流域内五河入湖径流变化归因时空差异。采取时间尺度分解的思路将两者进行耦合，流域外考虑江湖水量交换和三峡工程建设运行、流域内考虑气候变化和人类活动，开展流域内、外双重驱动因素影响下的鄱阳湖流域径流变异定量归因分析，以期达到构建与外界有水量交换流域径流变异定量归因研究分层评价模式的目的。

中文关键词： 全球变化；人类活动；水文响应机制；径流变化；土地利用变化

英文摘要： In recent years there has been frequent occurrence of extreme events in Poyang Lake area, especially the consecutive low water level events since 2003, which had serious influence to the water supply security, economic security and ecological security of Poyang Lake region and has drawn the extensive concern of scientific community and public opinion at home and abroad. In this study: (a) the quantitative characterization of the water exchange between Yangtze River and Poyang Lake and the influence of Three Gorges project operation on it and (b) spatial and temporal differences on the attribution of streamflow variability from the five major rivers into Poyang Lake are about to be explored, based on on-site investigation, statistical analysis, theoretical study, model establishment and comparative validation. Then the two parts are integrated in the light of time scale consistency, by taking consideration of water exchange between Yangtze River and Poyang Lake and construction and operation of Three Gorges project as external driver, and climate change and human activity in Poyang Lake catchment as internal driver. By means of quantitative attribution of the streamflow variability of Poyang Lake catchment under the effect of internal and external dual-driving factors, the framework of hierarchical quantitative appraise for streamflow variability of catchments with water fluxes exchange to its surrounding can be established.

英文关键词： global change;human activity;hydrological response mechnism;streamflow change;land use change