基于群集压力积累传播模型的高密度人群失稳临界表征研究

项目名称： 基于群集压力积累传播模型的高密度人群失稳临界表征研究

项目编号： No.71203201

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 胥旋

作者单位： 中国安全生产科学研究院

项目金额： 21万元

中文摘要： 近年来人群过度密集而引发的拥挤踩踏事故时有发生，给公众的生命安全带来了巨大的威胁。针对高度密集人群可能发生拥挤踩踏事故的风险，本项目从群集压力在积累和传播过程中引发个体失去平衡的角度，探寻人群系统失稳的临界表征。通过开展可控的人群压力传播测量实验，揭示群集压力在异质个体间积累和传播的基本规律，量化群集压力在个体介质中的作用、积累及传播的控制参数和演化规则，构建基于个体的群集压力积累传播微观模型，开展个体失衡压力测量实验，模拟分析地铁、大型活动等人群密集场所中的群集压力分布，综合人群密度、压力分布、行人运动轨迹等结果，提出可表征个体失衡程度的力特征量，结合典型人群拥挤踩踏事故案例，探寻基于该力表征量的高密度人群系统失稳临界条件。项目成果有望应用于人员密集场所危险点分布的预测预警，为高密度人群的安全管理工作提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 高密度人群；群集压力；疏散；客流监控预警；

英文摘要： Recently, the stampede accident caused by over crowed occurs frequently, which brings tremendous threat to public safety. Aim at the stampede risk from the high density crowd, this research attempts to explore the critical characterization of the instability of the crowd system from the perspective of pedestrians' losing balance during the accumulation and propagation of the crowd pressure. Through the controllable experiment of measuring propagation of the crowd pressure, the basic law of the accumulation and propagation of the crowd pressure among heterogeneous individuals will be revealed. The control parameters and evolution rules of the compression, accumulation and propagation of the crowd pressure will be quantified and characterized. The agent-based crowd pressure accumulation and propagation model will be proposed. By conducting the experiments of losing balance under the pressure and simulating the distribution of the high density crowd pressure in metros or event, the pressure-based characteristic quantity which can represent the degree of individual imbalance will be presented. Combing the case of stampede accident, we will explore the critical condition of the instability of the crowd system on basis of the pressure-based characteristic quantity. The results are expected to be applied in risk foreca

英文关键词： high density crowd；crowd pressure；evacuation；monitoring and pre-warning of passenger flow；