不确定结构可靠寿命设计的时变高精度模型和序列优化问题研究

项目名称： 不确定结构可靠寿命设计的时变高精度模型和序列优化问题研究

项目编号： No.11472075

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 汪忠来

作者单位： 电子科技大学

项目金额： 92万元

中文摘要： 为适应不确定结构设计中的时变多物理场耦合环境，以及考虑结构性能蕴含的多种不确定性因素，基于时变不确定性并充分考虑结构失效过程机理的可靠寿命设计，是实现不确定结构长寿命与高可靠要求的一种有效途径。而时变高精度模型作为可靠寿命设计中精确样本提取的信息基础，序列优化作为可靠寿命设计中资源消耗最少且高效的精确算法实现，两者是不确定结构可靠寿命设计的关键问题。对于时变高精度模型，本项目首先基于时变Copula函数的渐进稳定性，研究加速退化试验方案设计，继而利用Bayes因子指标与试验信息的内在联系，研究时变高精度模型确认方法；对于序列优化，本项目基于子集模拟研究兼顾效率和精度的可靠寿命序列分析方法，并耦合模型确认，研究资源消耗最少且高效的精确序列优化算法。在此基础上，以航天器结构为应用对象，验证所提出的模型和方法的有效性，为以高可靠、长寿命为标志的不确定结构的综合设计质量的提高提供技术支持和保障。

中文关键词： 可靠寿命设计；时变高精度模型；加速退化试验；序列优化

英文摘要： Reliable life design is an effective method to achieve the high reliability and a long duration life of uncertain structures by considering the failure mechanism and time-dependent uncertainties, which could be consistent with the time-dependent multi-physical coupled fields and uncertainties inherent in its performance. Time-dependent highly precise model is the information foundation to obtain the high precise samples, while the sequential optimization is a method with high computational efficiency and accuracy to minimize the expense during the reliable life design. For the construction of the highly precise model, the plan design of the accelerated degradation testing based on the asymptotic stability of the time-dependent Copula function is studied, and then the model validation method to achieve the time-dependent highly precise model is focused on based on the relationship between the Bayes factor index and the information from the accelerated degradation testing. For the sequential optimization, a sequential reliable life analysis method with high computational accuracy and efficiency is proposed based on subset simulation, and then the model validation is integrated into the procedure of design optimization to form the sequential optimization to minimize expense with guaranteeing the high accuracy and efficiency. The typical uncertain structure - spacecraft structure is used to testify the effectiveness of the proposed models and methods. The proposed models and methods will provide successive technical support and security for the improvement of the comprehensive design quality of uncertain structures marked with the high reliability and long duration life.

英文关键词： reliable life design;time-dependent highly precise model;accelerated degradation testing;sequential optimization