基于多重分形理论的自然景区黑碳气溶胶对人类旅游活动的响应机制研究

项目名称： 基于多重分形理论的自然景区黑碳气溶胶对人类旅游活动的响应机制研究

项目编号： No.41465010

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 史凯

作者单位： 吉首大学

项目金额： 50万元

中文摘要： 黑碳对全球气候变化影响重大，观测自然景区黑碳有助于了解其区域背景分布。近年来旅游业快速发展已使部分景区环境质量恶化，因此研究人类旅游活动对自然景区黑碳的影响具有重要科学意义。但由于黑碳时空演化表现出极强的变异性和复杂性，如何对其进行科学表征一直是相关领域的热点和难点，加上观测资料缺乏，导致黑碳对人类活动的响应动态难以准确解析。本项目拟以张家界天门山国家森林公园为研究区域，系统观测区域黑碳浓度，建立观测数据库；基于多重分形理论，应用多分形去趋势波动分析法，定量刻画黑碳的三维空间分布及时间演化的变异复杂性，挖掘黑碳局部异常的非线性标志；基于最新的多分形去趋势互相关分析法，研究景区黑碳时空演化随人类旅游活动变化的响应机制，阐明黑碳局部极端波动的发生机理。研究成果可为武陵山区黑碳观测积累重要基础资料，同时为表征黑碳时空演化规律提供新的研究途径，并为科学评估人类旅游活动对自然景区的影响提供理论依据。

中文关键词： 黑碳气溶胶；多重分形；时空变化特征；旅游活动；响应关系

英文摘要： Black carbon, a byproduct of fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning, is an important component of atmospheric particulate matter. Being a strong absorber of solar radiation, black carbon may have significant regional effects on temperature, cloud amount and precipitation. This may significantly influence the local and regional climate. There are large uncertainties associated with emissions of black carbon to the atmosphere, its aging during atmospheric transportation, and its removal by precipitation. All these uncertainities propagate directly into global climate model simulations. For a better understanding of the transportation, removal and climatic impacts of atmospheric black carbon, accurate and up-to-date knowledge of its spatio-temporal evolution is clearly needed. We think that the multifractal approach helps to describe the realities of local anomaly black carbon concentrations fluctuation accurately. One of the objectives of this research is to determine the variability of black carbon within a ralatively small area located in the Tianmenshan National Forest Park, based on multifractal theory. The other objectives is to illuminate the response mechanism of black carbon on human tourism activities. In order to achieve the goal, firstly, we will provide an systematic observation on the temporal and spatial variability of black carbon over this region. Then, the long term records from 9 stations over this region will be analyzed by multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method, which has been developed to analyze the nonstationary time series correctly, to quantify the long-range memory and multifractality of black carbon concentrations fluctuation. And the realities of local anomaly black carbon fluctuations will be described accurately by some multifractal parameters. At last, the temporal scaling behavior of correlation of black carbon concentrations fluctuations between different locations of Tianmenshan scenic and Zhangjiajie city will be analyzed by multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis. The response mechanism of variability of black carbon on human tourism activities will be discussed. The research results will accumulat important basic information for black carbon observations at Wuling mountain region, provide a new avenue of research to reveal the spatio-temporal distribution and evolution of black carbon and assess the impact of human travel activities on natural scenic quantitatively.

英文关键词： black carbon;multifractal;spatial-temporal evolution characteristics;tourism activity;response relation