相继故障视角下基于风险传播模型的研发网络脆弱性研究

项目名称： 相继故障视角下基于风险传播模型的研发网络脆弱性研究

项目编号： No.71471146

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 杨乃定

作者单位： 西北工业大学

项目金额： 58万元

中文摘要： 本课题综合运用风险理论、复杂网络和相继故障理论，将研发网络的风险传播现象视为复杂网络上的相继故障行为，来研究研发网络面对风险传播的脆弱性。课题结合成员研发企业的自身特点来揭示研发网络不同生成阶段的特征，从而提出研发网络的理论生成模型；借鉴复杂网络理论和相继故障思想，提出研发网络的风险传播模型，通过数值仿真来揭示研发网络风险传播规律及其对网络脆弱性的影响；在上述风险传播模型基础上，鉴于获取研发网络全局信息的局限性，引入信息偏差度来定量刻画灰色攻击信息的不准确性，提出灰色攻击下的研发网络风险传播模型，通过数值仿真来分析研发网络面对不同灰色攻击策略的脆弱性；从选取失效节点企业规则和修复失效节点企业机制两个方面提出针对研发网络风险传播的控制方法与模型，通过数值仿真来分析风险控制方法下研发网络面对风险传播的脆弱性。最后有针对性地提出增强研发网络抵抗风险传播能力的对策建议。

中文关键词： 网络脆弱性；研发网络；风险传播；相继故障；数值仿真

英文摘要： This project adopts the risk theory, complex network and cascading failures theory, and then studies the vulnerability of R&D network to risk propagation, which is considered as cascading failures of complex network. Firstly, this project explores different characteristics in different generation phases of R&D network by studying R&D firms' characteristics, and then proposes the theoretical generation model of R&D network; Secondly, this project proposes the risk propagation model of R&D network by introducing complex network and cascading failures theory, and then explores some risk propagation rules and the their impact on the vulnerability of R&D network through numerical simulation; Fourthly, this project introduces the deviation degree of information to describe the imprecision of grey attack information due to restriction of acquiring global information of R&D network, and then proposes the risk propagation of R&D network under grey attack, finally explores the vulnerability of R&D network under different grey attack strategies through numerical simulation; Fifthly, this project proposes the risk control method and model against risk propagation from what failed nodes to be restored and how to restore the selected failed nodes, and then explores the vulnerability of R&D network to risk propagation after adopting the proposed risk control model. Finally, this project makes some useful proposals on enhancing the ability of R&D network to resist risk propagation.

英文关键词： vulnerability of network;R&D network;risk propagation;cascading failures;numerical simulation