牛鞭效应、需求不确定性与企业成本性态

项目名称： 牛鞭效应、需求不确定性与企业成本性态

项目编号： No.71471150

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 杨石磊

作者单位： 西南财经大学

项目金额： 61万元

中文摘要： 尽管供应链管理对会计成本性态有直接的影响，但传统的成本管理往往关注于内部审计和控制，缺乏对企业供应链管理能力和外部不确定性的正确分析与评估。本项目旨在通过牛鞭效应强度来反映企业层面供应链管理能力，在充分考虑企业牛鞭效应和外部需求不确定性双重影响的基础上，探究我国企业如何选择合理的成本结构来优化成本配置。在技术上本项目以严谨的数学理论模型为基础，实证分析国泰安数据库中上市企业季度报表的财务数据，提炼出中国企业牛鞭效应、需求不确定性与成本性态的交互关系，此外还采用多种数据来源对比研究跨国家企业经理人在成本配置决策上的异同。本项目首次提出供应链管理背景下的成本性态问题，延伸了传统供应链管理的研究边界，研究内容融合了成本管理、供应链管理和企业战略管理等多学科知识来系统分析管理者决策行为，有助于认知中国企业的管理实践，预期将在供应链成本管理方面取得创新性研究成果。

中文关键词： 供应链管理；牛鞭效应；不确定性；成本性态

英文摘要： Although supply chain management frequently have direct consequences on accounting cost behavior, much of the traditional cost management literature lies in the internal audit and control functions, and the correct assessment and evaluation on firms' supply chain management capability and external turbulence are very limited. This research project will characterize the firm-level supply chain management capability by measuring the bullwhip ratio, then further analyze the influences of bullwhip effect and external demand uncertainty on firms' optimal decisions of cost structure. We first derive the relationship between bullwhip effect, demand uncertainty and cost behavior through precise theoretic modeling; second, we empirically test several proposed hypotheses by analyzing the data of listed Chinese firms from GTA financial market database; third, we exploratorily compare managers' cross-national decision-making differences on cost allocation by adopting multiple data sources. As a pioneering interface study between supply chains and cost behavior, this project extends the traditional research boundary of supply chain management. By integrating the theories from cost management, supply chain management and strategic management, potential research results will help the understanding of managers' decision behavior. This research on strategic cost management in supply chains is a promising project and will foster the understanding of related business practices in China.

英文关键词： Supply Chain Management;Bullwhip Effect;Uncertainty;Cost Behavior