基于动态概率模型的V2G运行模式下城市电网灾变机理与抗灾变能力研究

项目名称： 基于动态概率模型的V2G运行模式下城市电网灾变机理与抗灾变能力研究

项目编号： No.51207130

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 电气科学与工程学科

项目作者： 杨健维

作者单位： 西南交通大学

项目金额： 24万元

中文摘要： 电动汽车并网后，城市电网的潮流变化具有一定的随机性，使城市电网的灾变机理更加复杂，也使其遭受安全威胁的可能性大大增加。因此，对大规模电动汽车并网运行模式下，城市电网灾变机理和抗灾变能力评估的研究迫在眉睫。本项目根据电动汽车充放电和电力负荷变化的规律性与随机波动特性，引入动态随机变量，通过确定的变化规律与随机变量的叠加来描述电动汽车充电负荷和电力负荷的动态概率模型，计算动态概率潮流，对V2G运行模式下城市电网的灾变机理进行分析，揭示其故障事件的蔓延过程。解决电动汽车大规模接入后电动汽车充电负荷数学模型建模难、电力负荷概率模型描述难和灾变演化过程中潮流计算难等问题。在此基础上，定义考虑负荷随时间变化的城市电网抗灾变指标，并完成在新指标下城市电网抗灾变能力的概率性评估。课题的研究将对电动汽车的普及、大规模接入城市电网的抗灾变能力分析以及城市电网规划提供一定的理论支撑。

中文关键词： 城市电网；V2G；调度策略；可靠性；电能质量

英文摘要： The power flow in the ubran grid varies with some randomicity especially Electric Vehicle is integrated.It may cause the disaster mechanism of the urban power system to become more intricacy and the security threats possibility will be higher. Thus, the research on disaster mechanism and disaster resistance capability of urban power system is very important under the condition of large-scale vehicle to grid. The dynamic random variables will be brought into the research based on the variation pattern and random volatility of the electric vehicle charging and discharging and electric load. The dynamic probability model of electric vehicle charging load and random load is described according to the composition of certain varying rule and random variable. The evolution mechanism of urban grid disaster will be analyzed to uncover the spread process of it using random fluctuations. And then such problems as the electric vehicle load mathematical model building, electric load probability model description and the power plow calculation in disaster evolution after large-scale access of electric vehicles will be solved. On the basis of that, the disaster resistance index of the urban power grid considering the varying load will be defined and the probability of disaster resistance capability of the urban power grids wil

英文关键词： urban power network;；V2G；electric vehicle scheduling strategy；reliability；power quality