北极航线通航环境评价及海上突发事件响应机制研究

项目名称： 北极航线通航环境评价及海上突发事件响应机制研究

项目编号： No.61473053

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 范厚明

作者单位： 大连海事大学

项目金额： 78万元

中文摘要： 北极变暖和夏季冰融加速引致北极航道全线通航成为可能。北极航线一旦开通，将大大缩短太平洋和大西洋之间的航程，从而带来巨大的商业利益和战略价值。但受制于通航环境的不确定性和海上突发事件响应机制的缺乏，北极航线的商业通航还只是一个预期，并且存在很大的风险。本项研究首先采用ISM解释结构模型、语言信息处理、盲数理论模型等方法分析北极航线通航环境，并建立评价指标体系对其进行评价；然后采用改进德尔菲法及灰云聚类分析法刻画北极航线通航进程和通航后可能出现的海上突发事件的范围和规律；进而采用复杂网络理论、人工鱼群算法研究北极航线海上突发事件响应的复杂网络特征及其演化机理，以及海上突发事件响应机制；最后采用云模型等方法刻画未来北极地区的海事秩序，研究中国的未来对策。本项研究一方面可为未完全通航海域的通航环境评价和海上突发事件应急管理提供科学借鉴，另一方面可为我国北极航线开发利用提供科学依据和有效的政策建议。

中文关键词： 北极航线；通航环境；海上突发事件；响应机制；环境评价

英文摘要： The gradual warming up of Arctic and the speeding up of the sea ice melting in the summer has brought more light to the navigation along the whole water line. Once the Arctic route was opened, it would greatly shorten the voyage between the Pacific and the Atlantic, and bring huge business interests and strategic value. However the navigation of the Arctic route is just an expectation, because of the uncertainty of the navigation environment and the lack of emergency mechanism towards the paroxysmal events at sea, and there is a lot of risk. Firstly, this project adopts models, such as interpretative structural modeling (ISM) method, language information processing (IPL) , blind number theory model (BM), to analyze the navigation environment of Arctic route, establish the evaluation system and evaluate navigation environment. Then it uses the improved delphi method and the grey incidence cluster analysis to depict the Arctic route's navigation process and the possible scope and regularity of paroxysmal events arising after the Arctic route being navigable, and use the complex networks theory and artificial fish-swarm algorithm (AFSA) to study the complex network characteristics and evolution mechanism of the emergency response to the sea paroxysmal events along the Arctic route. At last, based on Cloud mode and extension fuzzy AHP method, this project depicts the future maritime order in the Arctic region, and discusses the future strategic measures that China should take. This study, on one hand, will make scientific reference value for the navigation environment evaluation and maritime emergency management of the uncompleted navigable waters, on the other hand, it can provide scientific basis and effective policy suggestions for the Arctic route's development and utilization of China.

英文关键词： the Arctic Route;Navigation Environment;Sea Events;Emergency Mechanism;Environment Evaluation