基于复杂系统理论的服务生态系统演化机理研究

项目名称： 基于复杂系统理论的服务生态系统演化机理研究

项目编号： No.61502333

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 黄科满

作者单位： 天津大学

项目金额： 21万元

中文摘要： 服务生态系统是软件信息技术和现代服务业催生的，以大量的服务为核心的，复杂、自演化、自治的社会-技术系统。本项目从复杂系统理论出发，以服务生态系统的演化机理为核心，研究其健康度评价、演化建模与预测以及诱导机制。首先基于服务生态系统的“生态特性、经济特性和复杂网络特性”，构建三维度服务生态系统健康度评价指标体系和度量方法，实现对典型服务生态系统演化状态的量化分析。其次从“微观行为、中观结构和宏观机理”三个方面，构建包括自适应行为模型、涌现结构模型和系统动力学模型的三层次服务生态系统演化模型，实现对其演化过程的建模和预测。最后针对系统自治的特性，从“增量诱导和存量更替”两个角度出发，设计包括生态位辨识和社会效用评价机制的双视角服务生态系统诱导机制，优化其系统服务能力和系统社会效用，从而诱导其健康演化。本项目形成的相关的理论、模型、方法和工具将为服务生态系统的治理和优化提供理论依据和工具支撑。

中文关键词： 服务生态系统；健康度评价；演化模型与预测；诱导机制设计

英文摘要： Spawned by the development of the software information technology and the rise of the service economic, service ecosystem consisting of huge number of services has emerged as a complex, evolving and autonomous socio-technical system. Based on the complex system theory, this project focuses on the service ecosystem's evolution mechanism, specifically on the healthy evaluation, the evolution model and prediction as well as the induction mechanism design. Firstly, based on the ecosystem, the economic and the complex network properties in the service ecosystem, this project will construct the three-dimensional healthy evaluation indicators and the assessment methodology, and then empirically study the evolution status of the typical service ecosystems. Furthermore, from the three perspectives including the microscopic behavior, moderate structure and macro mechanism, the self-adaptive behavior model, the emerging structural model and the system dynamics model will be developed to model and predict the service ecosystem's evolution. Finally, as the services in the system can be divided into the incremental and inventory ones, this project will develop the niche identification model to induce the incremental service supply as well as the social welfare evaluation methodology to guide the metabolism in the ecosystem. Consequently, the obtained result such as the theories, models, methodologies and tools can be used to direct the service ecosystem's government and optimization.

英文关键词： Service Ecosystem;Healthy Evaluation;Evolution Model and Prediction;Induction Mechanism Design