干旱区山区特殊气候变化对出山口径流的影响—以和田河为例

项目名称： 干旱区山区特殊气候变化对出山口径流的影响—以和田河为例

项目编号： No.41501211

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 地质学

项目作者： 李宝富

作者单位： 曲阜师范大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 山区气候是影响冰雪融水补给为主的干旱区河流水文过程的关键因子，但其变化特征及对水文过程的影响机理尚不明确。近年来，在西北干旱区快速升温背景下，和田河源流山区大部分区域地表温度却在降低，故研究该特殊气候变化对水文过程的影响显得尤为必要。本项目以山区气候变化为基础，以出山口径流演变为主线，以气候变化对径流的影响为核心，运用地理学、水文学、气候学和现代统计学等多学科理论基础与方法，建立适合山区复杂地理环境的高分辨率区域气候模式RegCM4，并结合RS技术从多种角度探析和田河山区特殊气候变化特征，解析其对出山口径流变化的影响机制，从定性、定量角度阐明山区气候与径流的耦合关系，揭示特殊气候影响下干旱区典型河流地表径流变化规律，并定量评估不同气候要素对径流变化的贡献率。本研究对科学理解全球气候变化下干旱区特殊气候及水文过程的演化机制，从流域尺度制定科学的水资源管理策略等方面具有重要的理论和现实意义。

中文关键词： 山区；气候变化；水循环；敏感性；干旱区

英文摘要： The climate change in mountainous area is the key factor of river hydrology process in the arid region that mainly stems from glacier and snow melt water. However, its change characteristics and influence on hydrology process have not been clearly demonstrated. In recent years, under the background of rapid temperature rising in northwest arid area, most of mountainous areas of Hotan River in the north slope of Kulun Mountain show the cooling trends in temperature. Thus, it is especially important to study the impact of special climate change on hydrology process. Multi-disciplinary theories and integrated research methodologies such as modern statistics, geography, fluvial hydrology and RS will be conducted on building regional climate model (RegCM4) of high resolution that applies to special geography environment in mountainous area and analyzing the special climate change in mountainous areas of Hotan River and the impact of unique mountain-pass runoff change on the basis of region climate change. Meanwhile, this research attempts to explore qualitatively the coupling relationship between climate and runoff change and to reveal the change law of typical river runoff under the impact of special climate change, and further estimate quantitatively the impact of runoff change. This project is of great scientific and practical significance in term of shedding new light on the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the arid region and reasonable water resources management strategy.

英文关键词： mountainous area;climate change;water cycle;sensitivity;arid region