北京暖区局地暴雨的形成机理及其数值预报效果的改进研究

项目名称： 北京暖区局地暴雨的形成机理及其数值预报效果的改进研究

项目编号： No.41475051

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 张文龙

作者单位： 北京城市气象研究院

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 北京突发性暖区局地暴雨一直是预报员面临的艰难挑战之一，加之数值模式对此类暴雨的预报能力也很低，常常带来严重的暴雨漏报，因此是一个当前迫切需要解决的科学和业务难题。本项目将探索北京暖区局地暴雨的形成机理，并在此基础上对数值模式的预报能力开展改进研究，深化华北地区暖区暴雨研究。 主要对两类典型个例进行研究，一类是锋前暖区局地暴雨，难题是：通常预报员和数值模式都能预报出锋面过境时的降水过程，而不能报出锋前暖区局地暴雨。重点进行锋面结构特征分析,探索锋前暖区暴雨的中尺度强迫机制及其在数值模式中的正确描述。 一类是无锋面活动的暖区局地暴雨,难题是:通常预报员和数值模式都不能发现局地暴雨的触发机制,使得对暴雨的前兆几乎没有察觉，暴雨突发性显著。重点研究暖区气团的温湿特性、边界层特征以及局地暴雨的触发机制，探索模式初始场针对触发机制的正确描述。

中文关键词： 暖区局地暴雨；形成机理；数值预报

英文摘要： The sudden rainstorms initiating in warm sector in Beijing has been one of the difficult challenges faced by forecasters, meanwhile the forecasting capability of numerical model for such rainstorm is very low. The serious misses of rainstorms bring about an urgent scientific and operational problem. Therefore, this project will explore the formation mechanism of warm sector rainstorms in Beijing, and then improve forecasting capability of numerical model. Two typical categories of warm vector rainstorms will be studied mainly. The first is warm vector rainstorms in front of the cold front. The problem is that forecasters and numerical models can forecast the frontal precipitation and cannot forecast the prefrontal precipitation in warm vector. So, the structural characteristics of the front, mesoscale forcing mechanisms, and its reasonable descriptions in numerical model will be focused on. The second is not associated by front. The problem is that forecasters and numerical models usually cannot find the trigger mechanism or precursors of the sudden rainstorms. So the characteristics of the warm and humid air mass，the features of boundary layer, the trigger mechanism, and correctly describing the initial field of model will be paid more attention.

英文关键词： warm sector rainstorms;formation mechanism;numerical prediction