It is widely known that Google Trends have become one of the most popular free tools used by forecasters both in academics and in the private and public sectors. There are many papers, from several different fields, concluding that Google Trends improve forecasts' accuracy. However, what seems to be widely unknown, is that each sample of Google search data is different from the other, even if you set the same search term, data and location. This means that it is possible to find arbitrary conclusions merely by chance. This paper aims to show why and when it can become a problem and how to overcome this obstacle.
翻译：众所周知,谷歌趋势已成为学术界以及私营和公共部门的预测人员最受欢迎的免费工具之一。 来自多个不同领域的许多论文都认为谷歌趋势提高了预测的准确性。 然而,人们似乎普遍不知道谷歌搜索数据的每个样本都不同于另一个样本,即使你设定了相同的搜索术语、数据和位置。这意味着只能偶然地找到任意的结论。 本文旨在说明为什么和何时可能成为一个问题以及如何克服这一障碍。
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