This paper proposes a general unplanned incident analysis framework for public transit systems from the supply and demand sides using automated fare collection (AFC) and automated vehicle location (AVL) data. Specifically, on the supply side, we propose an incident-based network redundancy index to analyze the network's ability to provide alternative services under a specific rail disruption. The impacts on operations are analyzed through the headway changes. On the demand side, the analysis takes place at two levels: aggregate flows and individual response. We calculate the demand changes of different rail lines, rail stations, bus routes, and bus stops to better understand the passenger flow redistribution under incidents. Individual behavior is analyzed using a binary logit model based on inferred passengers' mode choices and socio-demographics using AFC data. The public transit system of the Chicago Transit Authority is used as a case study. Two rail disruption cases are analyzed, one with high network redundancy around the impacted stations and the other with low. Results show that the service frequency of the incident line was largely reduced (by around 30% ~ 70%) during the incident time. Nearby rail lines with substitutional functions were also slightly affected. Passengers showed different behavioral responses in the two incident scenarios. In the low redundancy case, most of the passengers chose to use nearby buses to move, either to their destinations or to the nearby rail lines. In the high redundancy case, most of the passengers transferred directly to nearby lines. Corresponding policy implications and operating suggestions are discussed.
翻译:本文提出供求双方公共过境系统一般意外事故分析框架,使用自动化票价收集(AFC)和自动车辆定位(AVL)数据,对供求双方的公共过境系统进行一般性意外事件分析。具体地说,在供方方面,我们提议了一个基于事故的网络冗余指数,以分析网络在特定铁路中断情况下提供替代服务的能力。通过进展变化分析了对业务的影响。在需求方面,分析分为两个层次:总流量和个人反应。我们计算了不同铁路线、火车站、公共汽车路线和公共汽车站的需求变化,以更好地了解事件造成的客流量再分配。个人行为使用基于推断乘客模式选择的二元日志模型以及使用AFC数据的社会人口分析。芝加哥交通管理局的公共过境系统被用作案例研究。分析了两个铁路中断案例,一个是受影响车站周围高度网络冗余,另一个是低点。结果显示事故发生时,事故线的服务频率大为减少(约30% ~ 70 % ) 。 使用替代功能的铁路线附近的铁路路段也略有受到影响。在两个情况下,客运大多数行为反应都转向附近铁路。