Property elicitation studies which attributes of a probability distribution can be determined by minimizing a risk. We investigate a generalization of property elicitation to imprecise probabilities (IP). This investigation is motivated by distributionally robust optimization and multi-distribution learning. Both those frameworks replace the minimization of a single risk over a (precise) probability by a maximin risk minimization over a set of probabilities -- i.e. an IP. We show what can be learned in those multi-distribution setups by providing necessary and sufficient conditions for the elicitability of an IP-property. Central to these conditions is the observation made in related literature that the elicited IP-property is the corresponding classical property of the probability in the IP with the maximum Bayes risk.
翻译:性质激发研究通过最小化风险可以确定概率分布的哪些属性。我们探讨了将性质激发推广到不精确概率(IP)的泛化。这项研究受到分布鲁棒优化和多分布学习的推动。这两个框架都用一个概率集合(即一个IP)上的极大极小风险最小化,取代了单一(精确)概率上单一风险的最小化。我们通过为IP-性质的可激发性提供必要和充分条件,展示了在这些多分布设置中可以学习到什么。这些条件的核心是相关文献中观察到的:被激发的IP-性质是IP中具有最大贝叶斯风险的概率所对应的经典性质。