The ability to perform causal and counterfactual reasoning are central properties of human intelligence. Decision-making systems that can perform these types of reasoning have the potential to be more generalizable and interpretable. Simulations have helped advance the state-of-the-art in this domain, by providing the ability to systematically vary parameters (e.g., confounders) and generate examples of the outcomes in the case of counterfactual scenarios. However, simulating complex temporal causal events in multi-agent scenarios, such as those that exist in driving and vehicle navigation, is challenging. To help address this, we present a high-fidelity simulation environment that is designed for developing algorithms for causal discovery and counterfactual reasoning in the safety-critical context. A core component of our work is to introduce \textit{agency}, such that it is simple to define and create complex scenarios using high-level definitions. The vehicles then operate with agency to complete these objectives, meaning low-level behaviors need only be controlled if necessary. We perform experiments with three state-of-the-art methods to create baselines and highlight the affordances of this environment. Finally, we highlight challenges and opportunities for future work.
翻译:进行因果关系和反事实推理的能力是人类情报的核心特性。能够进行这类推理的决策系统有可能更加普遍和可以解释。模拟有助于推进这一领域的最新技术,提供系统变化参数(例如,混淆者)的能力,并在反事实假设中产生结果实例。然而,模拟多试剂情景中复杂的时间因果关系事件,例如驾驶和车辆导航中存在的情况,具有挑战性。为了帮助解决这一问题,我们提出了一种高度虚构的模拟环境,目的是在安全危急环境中发展因果发现和反事实推理的算法。我们工作的核心组成部分是引入\textit{irmed},这样很容易用高层次的定义来定义和创造复杂的假设情景。这些工具然后与机构合作来完成这些目标,这意味着只需要在必要时控制低层次的行为。我们用三种最先进的方法进行实验,以创建基线和突出这一环境的承受能力。最后,我们强调未来工作的挑战和机会。