Repeat asymptomatic testing in order to identify and quarantine infectious individuals has become a widely-used intervention to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In some workplaces, and in particular health and social care settings with vulnerable patients, regular asymptomatic testing has been deployed to staff to reduce the likelihood of workplace outbreaks. We have developed a model based on data available in the literature to predict the potential impact of repeat asymptomatic testing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The results highlight features that are important to consider when modelling testing interventions, including population heterogeneity of infectiousness and correlation with test-positive probability, as well as adherence behaviours in response to policy. Furthermore, the model based on the reduction in transmission potential presented here can be used to parameterise existing epidemiological models without them having to explicitly simulate the testing process. Overall, we find that even with different model paramterisations, in theory, regular asymptomatic testing is likely to be a highly effective measure to reduce transmission in workplaces, subject to adherence.
翻译:为了识别和隔离传染性个人,反复进行无症状检测已成为广泛用来控制SARS-CoV-2传播的干预手段,在有些工作场所,特别是针对弱势病人的保健和社会护理场所,定期对工作人员进行无症状检测,以减少工作场所爆发爆发的可能性;我们根据文献中的数据开发了一个模型,预测重复无症状检测对SARS-CoV-2传播的潜在影响;结果突出了在模拟检测干预措施时必须考虑的重要特征,包括传染性的人口异质性、与试验阳性概率的关联性,以及遵守政策的行为;此外,基于减少传播潜力的模型可以用来对现有流行病学模型进行参数化,而不必明确模拟测试过程;总体而言,我们发现,即使采用不同的模型参数参数,理论上说,定期的无症状检测也可能是减少工作场所传播的高度有效的措施,但需遵守。