COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11th, 2020. With half of the world's countries in lockdown as of April due to this pandemic, monitoring and understanding the spread of the virus and infection rates and how these factors relate to behavioural and societal parameters is crucial for effective policy making. This paper aims to investigate the effectiveness of masks, social distancing, lockdown and self-isolation for reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Our findings based on agent-based simulation modelling show that whilst requiring a lockdown is widely believed to be the most efficient method to quickly reduce infection numbers, the practice of social distancing and the usage of surgical masks can potentially be more effective than requiring a lockdown. Our multivariate analysis of simulation results using the Morris Elementary Effects Method suggests that if a sufficient proportion of the population wore surgical masks and followed social distancing regulations, then SARS-CoV-2 infections can be controlled without requiring a lockdown.
翻译:世界卫生组织(世卫组织)于2020年3月11日宣布COVID-19为流行病,截至4月,世界上有一半国家由于这一流行病而处于封闭状态,监测和了解病毒和感染率的传播以及这些因素与行为和社会参数的关系,对于有效决策至关重要,本文件旨在调查面具、社会疏远、封闭和自我隔离对减少SARS-COV-2感染蔓延的功效,我们根据以代理为基础的模拟模型得出的调查结果表明,虽然普遍认为需要封闭状态是迅速减少感染人数的最有效方法,但社会疏远和使用外科面具的做法可能比需要封闭更为有效。我们利用莫里斯初级效应方法对模拟结果进行的多变分析表明,如果有足够比例的人口佩戴外科面具并遵循社会疏松的规章制度,那么SARS-COV-2感染就可以不必封闭而加以控制。