What happens to mining when the Bitcoin price changes, when there are mining supply shocks, the price of energy changes, or hardware technology evolves? We give precise answers based on the technical forces and incentives in the system. We then build on these dynamics to consider value: what is the cost and purpose of mining, and is it worth it? Does it use too much energy, is it bad for the environment? Finally we extend our analysis to the long term: is mining economically feasible forever? What will the global hash rate be in 40 years? How is mining impacted by the limits of computation and energy? Is it physically sustainable in the long run? From first principles, we derive a fundamental scale-invariant feasibility constraint, which enables us to analyze the interlocking dynamics, find key invariants, and answer these questions mathematically.
翻译:当Bitcoin价格变化,当采矿供应冲击,能源变化价格或硬件技术演变时,采矿会怎么样?我们根据系统中的技术力量和激励机制给出准确答案。然后我们利用这些动态来考虑价值:采矿的成本和目的是什么,它值得吗?它是否使用过多的能源,对环境不利?最后,我们将我们的分析扩大到长期:采矿在经济上是否永远可行?全球大麻率在40年内会怎样?从长远来看,采矿会受到计算和能源限度的影响吗?从最初的原则看,我们产生了一个基本的规模变化可行性限制,使我们能够分析交错的动态,找到关键变量,并以数学方式回答这些问题。