基于灾害蔓延动力学的生命线系统级联失效及其风险最小化问题研究

项目名称： 基于灾害蔓延动力学的生命线系统级联失效及其风险最小化问题研究

项目编号： No.51208081

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 建筑环境与结构工程学科

项目作者： 张明媛

作者单位： 大连理工大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 生命线系统与其他工程系统的区别在于其内部存在着强烈的关联性。在灾害环境下，生命线系统内存在着一种节点间的失效相关性- - 级联失效。从生命线系统的资源传输与网络特征角度，考虑了系统网络组成要素- - 节点之间的关联关系形式及影响，首先基于结构时效与结构有序计算节点关联度。然后，考虑资源与灾害在实体网络上传播蔓延的时空过程，利用灾害蔓延动力学对网络动态传播的描述能力，对其中的节点失效属性、节点关联强度和时间参数进行改进计算，结合节点冗余因子，构建生命线实体网络系统的级联失效模型，实现对生命线系统节点由于级联关系造成的失效影响的判断。在判断节点级联失效模糊态后，建立基于失效联系度的系统级联失效风险计算式，并提出利用人工智能算法，在保证一定资源供给率的约束条件下优化组合节点关联关系，以及计算差异性系数波动，进行生命线系统级联失效风险最小化设计。

中文关键词： 生命线管网；级联失效；灾害动态传播；风险；

英文摘要： Lifeline systems are significant different with other engineering systems at inner correlation. Under disaster environment, there is a kind of dependent failure among nodes existing in the lifeline systems, named cascading failure. Considering the form and effect of correlate relationship among nodes which is necessary element of lifeline systems, first, we will calculate the node correlation based on structure time-effect and order from the sight of resource transfer and network. Second, considering the spreading process of space-time of resource and disaster on real network as well as taking the advantage of dynamic of disaster spreading for network, we will improve the calculation of failure characteristics, correlate degree and time parameter, and then combined with node redundant factor to set up the model of cascading failure of lifeline real network systems to judge the nodes failure effect caused by cascading. After judging the fuzzy states, we will set up cascading failure risk formula based on failure affiliation. Then, we suggest using the artificial intelligence arithmetic to optimize the node correlate relationship under resource supply restriction. With the calculation of the otherness coefficient fluctuant, we are trying to minimize the cascading failure risk of lifeline systems.

英文关键词： lifeline network；cascading failure；disaster dynamic diffusion；risk；