虚拟水转化运移驱动机制与调控研究

项目名称： 虚拟水转化运移驱动机制与调控研究

项目编号： No.51279063

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 韩宇平

作者单位： 华北水利水电大学

项目金额： 82万元

中文摘要： 虚拟水概念自提出后已经取得了许多研究成果，但系统性的虚拟水转化运移过程、演变规律、驱动机制、调控原理和调控对策研究还很薄弱，与虚拟水管理和调控的实践需求很不相称，难以满足我国建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会的实践需求。本项目以北方典型缺水地区海河流域滦河下游区域为例，以理论方法创新为手段，综合应用统计、数学模型、理论分析等手段，在明晰虚拟水转化运移基本方式和基本特征基础上，核算经济社会系统发展历程中的虚拟水转化运移通量，识别虚拟水转化运移的关键影响因素及作用机制，探索虚拟水转化运移的时空演变规律和驱动机制，结合区域水资源承载力模型进行区域虚拟水转化运移调控研究，对虚拟水转化运移调控手段进行评价，最后提出区域虚拟水转化运移调控政策建议。本项目的实施，对丰富和发展虚拟水理论、水循环理论和水资源管理理论等研究具有重要的理论与科学意义，对区域水资源综合规划、水管理政策制定具有一定的实践指导价值。

中文关键词： 虚拟水通量；虚拟水转化运移；驱动机制；投入产出分析；系统动力学

英文摘要： A lot researches have been done since the virtual water concept was defined. Nevertheless, it has been noticed that researches related to transformation and transfer process, evolution rule, driving mechanism, regulation principle and regulation methods of virtual water are still unclear, which is unequal to virtual water management and practical need. For China, current researches in virtual water are hard to satisfy the need to construct the Resource-Conserving and Environment-Friendly Society. Downstream Luan River is a typical northern water-deficient area is selected as the case study area. Using innovatory theory methodology and on the basis of virtual water transformation process and its fundamental characteristic, this project mainly focus on calculating and analyzing transformation flux of virtual water in the economic social development process, finding out key factors influencing virtual water transformation and the overall influencing mechanism, exploring spatial-temporal evolution and driving mechanism, studying virtual water transformation regulation in combination of regional water resources carrying capacity model,evaluating the regulation methods of virtual water transformation, and presenting suggestion of regional virtual water transformation. Researches presented in this project have importan

英文关键词： Virtual water flux；virtual water transport and transformation；driving mechanism；input-output analysis；system dynamics