西北太平洋高空冷涡对台风路径突变影响的机理研究

项目名称： 西北太平洋高空冷涡对台风路径突变影响的机理研究

项目编号： No.41475055

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 李英

作者单位： 中国气象科学研究院

项目金额： 90万元

中文摘要： 台风路径突变是当代灾害性天气预报预警的重大难题。观测研究表明，我国近海台风路径突变现象频率较高，常造成重大灾害，其机理研究是台风路径突变预报的前沿科学问题。台风路径突变的一个重要机理是：大气环流的迅速调整及台风和不同天气系统的相互作用。本项目研究内容是：在论证西北太平洋高空冷涡（UTCL）对台风路径突变的重要影响基础上，探索大气环流迅速调整过程中UTCL和台风系统的相互作用；并研究相互作用过程中UTCL对台风路径突变的影响。首先运用多年的台风和UTCL观测资料分析台风路径突变和UTCL的相关性，得到两者关系的统计特征；采用诊断分析和数值试验研究大气环流调整条件下UTCL的结构特征、发展演变规律及其与台风移动的关系，分析出环境场条件突变以及斜压和正压涡旋相互作用两个方面对台风路径突变的影响机理；从而建立UTCL影响台风路径突变的概念模型，为台风路径预报提供扎实的理论基础。

中文关键词： 台风路径；高空冷涡；突变；相互作用；西北太平洋

英文摘要： An accurate forecast for sudden change of typhoon motion is a great challenge in warning disastrous weather nowadays. Observational studies show that the sudden change phenomena occur frequently over the offshore area of China, often leading to serious damage. So the mechanism study on sudden change of typhoon track has become a frontier topic in recent tropical cyclone research. The sudden change of typhoon track is generally related to the rapid adjustment of atmospheric circulation and the interaction between typhoon and other weather systems. Note that the Upper Tropospheric Cold Low (UTCL) over the western North Pacific is one of the systems which may have interaction with tphoon. This study will verify its importance in sudden change of typhoon tracks, and investigate the interaction between UTCL and typhoon under the backgound of atmospheric circulation adjustment, as well as the impact of UTCL on typhoon motion. In this study, statistical analysis will be used to explore the relationship between UTCL and typhoon motion with the purpose of getting their observational activity features. Then based on diagnostic analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments, the UTCL's structure, evolvement and its relationship with typhoon movement will be studied in detail,to get better understanding on the impact mechanism of UTCL on typhoon motion sudden change with a view to exploring the rapid change of enviornmental flow and the interaction between a baroclinic and a barotropic vortex. Finally,a concept model of typhoon track sudden change under the effect of UTCL is to be established.

英文关键词： Typhoon Motion;Upper Tropospheric Cold Low;Sudden Change;Interaction;Western North Pacific