中国不同类型区低碳发展机理与系统仿真研究

项目名称： 中国不同类型区低碳发展机理与系统仿真研究

项目编号： No.41201602

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 地理学

项目作者： 张金萍

作者单位： 河南大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 在人类应对全球气候变化的挑战中，低碳城市区域成为低碳经济社会的空间聚焦点。本研究根据人地和谐共生理论，构建以系统动力学模型（SDM）为框架的低碳发展情景模拟系统，从中心城市与区域互动和平衡的视角，探析不同类型区低碳发展的复杂机理与演化路径。首先，建立不同层面指标体系，测度中国359地级行政区的低碳发展水平，结合Theil系数、GWR、SLM&SEM等模型进行时空分析，科学划分低碳发展的类型区。进而针对选取的典型城市区域，运用SD与IOA模型合理估算能源消费量，同时考虑工业生产过程和土地利用变化的碳排放，利用STIRPAT拓展模型定量分析碳排放的驱动因素。通过SD与FGLS、SSVAM模型等的耦合，探测产业结构演进与技术进步协同作用的碳减排效应；基于此将SD与PSO改进的CA模型相集成，动态模拟土地利用数量结构和空间布局优化策略下的低碳发展情景，揭示我国不同低碳发展区域的差异性与规律性。

中文关键词： 低碳发展；低碳城市；碳排放；土地利用变化；系统模拟

英文摘要： In the response to the global challenge of climate change, low-carbon city-regions has become the spatial focus point of low-carbon economy and society. Based on the theory of "mankind and the environment coexisting in harmony", the study will build a low-carbon development scenario simulation system using system dynamics model (SDM) as the modeling framework from the perspective of the balance and interaction of the central city and the surrounding areas, to analyze the complex mechanism and evolution of the low-carbon development in different types of regions. Primarily, create index system of different levels to measure the low-carbon level of development of China's 359 prefecture-level administrative districts, and scientificly zoning the low-carbon development types with the spatial-temporal analysis of the low-carbon level by Theil index, models of GWR and SLM & SEM taken into account. Secondly, for the selected typical city-regions, use SD and IOA model to estimate the energy consumption, and calculate carbon emissions combining with other carbon sources/sinks of the industrial production process and land use change. And then take advantage of the expanded STIRPAT model to analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions. Finally, make use of SDM coupled with FGLS and SSVAM model to detect the carbon emiss

英文关键词： low carbon development；low carbon city；carbon emissions；land use change；system simulation