基于伴随方法的2007-2011年北极海冰面积变化原因研究

项目名称： 基于伴随方法的2007-2011年北极海冰面积变化原因研究

项目编号： No.41276190

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 刘喜迎

作者单位： 中国人民解放军理工大学

项目金额： 77万元

中文摘要： 围绕寻找本世纪北极海冰面积加速减小原因目标，在对三套大气强迫场（ERA-Interim、NCEP2和JRA25）进行深入对比分析的基础上，利用其驱动全球海冰-海洋耦合模式及其伴随模式，开展北极海冰总面积对大气强迫（10米风、2米气温和比湿、降水率及向下辐射通量）、海洋（温度、盐度及流速）和海冰状态（厚度、密集度及流速）初值及底边界条件（有滑动或无滑动）敏感性数值试验，对比分析模拟结果中2007-2011年（2007年为近几十年北极海冰面积最小年,2011年为次最小年,2008年为第三最小年）敏感性差异特点，研究影响北极海冰变化因子作用程度的变化特点,为本世纪"北极海冰融化加速"问题增加认识。此外，分析大气强迫及边界条件影响的差异，加深对海冰数值模拟不确定性问题的认识。

中文关键词： 北极；海冰；数值模拟；伴随模式；

英文摘要： Recent Arctic sea ice coverage is the lowest in the satellite record (since 1979) and is occurring at least 30 years earlier than was anticipated in the recent assessment report issued by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).Focusing on the aim of finding reasons for the accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover in recent years, the atmospheric forcing fields from three widely used reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim,NCEP2 and JRA25) will be investigated and numerical sensitivity experiments will be performed with global sea ice-ocean coupled model and its adjoint code (the adjoint is an ideal tool to quantify the sensitivity of a small set of target quantities with respect to a change in a larger number of independent variables). Runs of adjoint model for years from 2007 to 2011 respectively will compute the sensitivities of total Arctic sea ice area with respect to the following input quantities on the full model grid:the surface atmospheric forcing fields (wind in two directions at 10m, temperature and specific humidity at 2m, precipitation rate and downward radiation fluxes) as well as the initial values of the ocean state (ocean currents,ocean temperatures and ocean salinities) and the sea ice state (ice thickness, ice concentration and ice currents). Influences of bottom boundary conditi

英文关键词： Arctic；sea ice；numerical modeling；adjoint model；