中国应急管理体系顶层设计原理方法及模式重构

项目名称： 中国应急管理体系顶层设计原理方法及模式重构

项目编号： No.91224003

项目类型： 重大研究计划

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 韩传峰

作者单位： 同济大学

项目金额： 200万元

中文摘要： 突发事件呈高频次、多领域发生的复杂态势，我国应急管理体系难以有效应对，亟待自上而下系统规划，开展顶层设计和模式重构。本项目拟综合运用系统科学、管理学、社会学等理论方法，分析把握中国应急管理时代性需求，明确顶层设计目标体系；剖析国家应急管理体系问题，评估社会组织应急能力，辨析中国应急文化特征，确定顶层设计的主要内容；解析典型国家和地区应急管理体系宏观演化脉络和微观演化机制，得出顶层设计的参考模式；构建国家应急管理组织的结构模型、行为规则模型和环境模型，基于计算实验研究确定中国应急管理体系优化方案，研究提出顶层设计的模型方法；设计中国应急管理体系模式重构路线，探究其关键问题，确立模式重构实施步骤，提出中国应急管理体系顶层设计的实施路径。研究为中国应急管理体系改革提供新的思路、原理和方法，丰富发展应急管理科学理论体系，为保障国家公共安全提供基础性、战略性和前瞻性的理论支撑。

中文关键词： 非常规突发事件；应急管理体系；顶层设计；模式重构；计算实验

英文摘要： The world is in the situation that emergencies are becoming more frequent occurrences in various fields. China’s emergency management system can hardly deal with this complex situation efficiently and effectively. As a consequence, the needs for top-down design and pattern refactoring of the emergency management system are getting increasingly urgent. By comprehensively applying theories and methods of systems science, management science, and sociology, this project is intended to analyze and understand the contemporary needs of China’s emergency management, and define a clear top-down objective system. Analyze the present condition of the national emergency management system, and assess emergency response capacity of social organizations. Identify characteristics of China’s emergency response culture, and determine the main contents of the top-down design. Analyze the emergency management system’s macro-evolution context and micro-evolution mechanism of typical nations and regions, and obtain the reference model of the top-down design. Build the national emergency management organizational structure model, behavior rule model and environmental model, and determine the optimal scheme of China’s emergency management system based on social computing, and propose the methodology of the top-level design. Design the

英文关键词： unconventional emergency event；emergency management system；top-down design；pattern refactoring；social computing