顾及地理要素特征的城市空气污染时空建模研究

项目名称： 顾及地理要素特征的城市空气污染时空建模研究

项目编号： No.41201384

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 地理学

项目作者： 邹滨

作者单位： 中南大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 在我国，空气污染已经严重影响到人们的健康与日常生活，但如何降低空气污染一直是困绕国家的一个重要问题。对空气污染时空变化认识的不足将影响到国家空气污染防控的决策优化。 国内外研究已证实城市空气污染的发生与地理要素相关,本项目以PM10和PM2.5为例，基于地理要素状态改变与城市空气污染时空变化相互关联的假设，采用地理信息系统空间分析、统计等方法揭示城市空气污染与地理要素变化间的响应机制；构建多元地理要素影响下的城市空气污染时空动力学模型；以试验区为例，检验基于国外城市数据构建的动力学模型在国内城市空气污染时空模拟中的适用性，并应用模型模拟试验区不同地理要素场景下的城市空气污染时空格局，以对试验区的空气污染防控提供决策支持。 本项目从地理过程视角借助GIS手段研究城市空气污染时空变化，研究成果不仅可以拓展城市空气污染来源、成因解析的理论和方法，而且还能在区域空气污染防控中起到空间决策支持作用。

中文关键词： 地理环境；时空预测；环境系统建模；空间关联；地理信息系统

英文摘要： In China, human health and their daily lives have been greatly affected by air pollution. Therefore, how to reduce air pollution, especially in urban areas, has been a very important aspect of long-term environment protection in China. However, defects in understanding the spatial-temporal changes of air pollution have prevented us from effectively designing national and regional intervention strategies. Based on established relationships between urban air pollution and geographic factors, this project aims to further investigate the associations between the changes of geographic factors and the spatial-temporal variations of urban air pollution with cases of PM10 and PM2.5. Using geographic information science (GIS), spatial analysis, and spatial statistics, this project will 1) disclose the dynamic mechanism between geographic factors and urban air pollution, 2) build the multitype geographical factors based spatial-temporal dybamic model and validate this model in simulating the air pollution of China's urban areas by using 3 cities as a trial plot, and 3) apply this model to simulate the spatial-temporal patterns of urban air pollution under different geographic factor spots to achieve decision support for air pollution prevention and control. In summary, based on the perspective of geo-process evolution,

英文关键词： geographcial environment；spaital-temporal prediction；environmental system modeling；spatial association；geographical information system