黄河中游地区突发性大暴雨MCC结构特征研究

项目名称： 黄河中游地区突发性大暴雨MCC结构特征研究

项目编号： No.41475050

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 赵桂香

作者单位： 山西省气象台

项目金额： 49万元

中文摘要： 中尺度对流复合体（MCC）和许多强对流天气相关联。研究表明黄河中游地区为MCC高发区，由于流域内地形复杂，常导致大暴雨引发洪水泛滥。为深入认识该地区MCC发展演变原因，本研究拟利用近7年高分辨率卫星资料，对MCC进行普查；利用常规和非常规探测资料如雷达、自动站、L波段探空秒数据以及NCEP再分析资料等，应用雷达反演技术、天气学分析和诊断分析技术，结合数值模拟，精细分析该地区突发性大暴雨MCC发展演变各阶段物理量要素的垂直分布特征、急流（或强东北气流）作用及贡献、能量以及水汽收支情况，研究MCC中尺度特征及其触发机制；并分析太行山、秦岭、伏牛山等地形对MCC形成发展及降水的影响，诊断分析地形的强迫抬升作用、阻滞效应和背风坡气流下沉效应；给出造成突发性大暴雨MCC的高低空流型配置，并建立概念模型；提炼MCC导致突发性大暴雨的预报技术指标。

中文关键词： 突发性大暴雨；MCC；结构特征；中尺度数值模拟；地形影响

英文摘要： The mesoscale convective complex (MCC) is related to many strong convective weather phenomena. The studies showed that there was a high risk of MCC which often caused heavy rain and following floods in the middle reaches of the Yellow River due to its complex terrain. In order to further understand the causes of evolution of MCC, it is necessary to census MCC by utilizing high-resolution satellite data in recent seven years. Using the conventional and unconventional observation data, such as radar sounding data, automatic meteorological stations, sounding second data of L brand and NCEP reanalysis data，employing radar inversion technique, synoptic meteorology and diagnostic analysis technology, combined with numerical simulation, vertical distributions of physical variables, contributions of Jet and budget of energy and water vapor in every stage of MCC are analyzed firstly. Also the mesoscale features and triggering mechanism of MCC are studied. Moreover , the influences of Taihang Mountain, Qinling Mountains and Funiu Mountain on MCC and precipitation are investigated .And forced lifting effect, blocking effect and lee-ward sink effect of these mountains are studied by simulation and diagnostic analysis method.Finally, the system configuration of MCC at upper and low level are described to make the physical model, and the forecast index of MCC leading to sudden heavy rain are refined.

英文关键词： sudden heavy rain;MCC;structure characteristics;mesoscale numerical simulation;influence of topography