We employ an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration and Unrestricted Error Correction Models (UECMs) to estimate the relationship between income and CO2 emissions per capita in 21 Latin American Countries (LACs) over 1960-2017. Using time series we estimate six different specifications of the model to take into account the independent effect on CO2 emissions per capita of different factors considered as drivers of different dynamics of CO2 emissions along the development path. This approach allows to address two concerns. First, the estimation of the model controlling for different variables serves to assess if the EKC hypothesis is supported by evidence in any of the LACs considered and to evaluate if this evidence is robust to different model specifications. Second, the inclusion of control variables accounting for the effect on CO2 emissions is directed at increasing our understanding of CO2 emissions drivers in different countries. The EKC hypothesis effectively describes the long term income-emissions relationship only in a minority of LACs and, in many cases, the effect on CO2 emissions of different factors depends on the individual country experience and on the type and quantity of environmental policies adopted. Overall, these results call for increased environmental action in the region.
翻译:我们使用一个ARDL约束测试方法,对1960-2017年期间21个拉丁美洲国家的人均收入和CO2排放量之间的关系作出估计;我们利用时间序列估计该模型的六种不同的规格,以考虑到被认为是发展道路上二氧化碳排放量不同动态驱动因素的不同因素对人均CO2排放量产生的独立影响;这种方法可以解决两个问题;首先,对不同变量控制模型的估计有助于评估所考虑的拉加地区的任何证据是否支持EECC假设,并评估这种证据是否对不同的模型规格具有效力;第二,纳入对CO2排放量影响的控制变量是为了增进我们对不同国家CO2排放驱动因素的理解;EECC假设有效地描述只有少数拉加地区才存在长期收入-排放关系,在许多情况下,不同因素对CO2排放量的影响取决于个别国家的经验和采取的环境政策的类型和数量。